The Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will conclude Super Wild Card Weekend when these two NFC clubs square off on Monday night. This matchup is a rematch from a primetime head-to-head we saw all the way back in Week 1 when the Buccaneers were able to scrape by with a 19-3 victory. However, Dallas is currently looked at as the favorite in this upcoming contest, despite being on the road, thanks to their 12-5 record and Tampa Bay's 8-9 record. This season's Buccaneers are only the sixth team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record.
Even though Brady has the best record by any quarterback against the Cowboys all time at 7-0, we'll make the case why the Cowboys will finally overcome the GOAT and punch their ticket to the divisional round.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Jan. 16 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Odds: Cowboys -2.5, O/U 45.5
An elite defense
The Dallas Cowboys are one of the best five defenses in football. They are allowing 20.1 points per game (fifth-fewest in the NFL) while leading the league in takeaways (33) and quarterback pressure rate (43.3%). Dallas actually led the NFL in takeaways in 2021 as well (34), making them the second defense since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to lead the league in takeaways in back-to-back seasons, joining the 1972-1974 "Steel Curtain" Pittsburgh Steelers defenses.
Linebacker Micah Parsons co-led the NFL in quarterback pressures (90) with San Francisco 49ers defensive end and likely Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa. Parsons also has more in common with a former elite 49ers pass rusher, becoming one of two players, along with Aldon Smith, with at least 13.5 sacks in each of their first two seasons since sacks became an official stat in 1982. On the back end, there's Trevon Diggs, last season's interceptions leader who has become better in coverage despite fewer picks.
Tom Brady's weakness is the same as it's always been: he's not nearly as good under pressure because of his lack of mobility. He's this season's least pressured quarterback -- under pressure only 19.6 percent of the time -- but when he gets flustered by an opposing pass rush, he melts: his 44.4 passer rating when pressured is the fourth-worst in the NFL among 33 qualified quarterbacks ahead of only New England Patriots' Mac Jones (35.1), Arizona Cardinals' Kyler Murray (33.6), and New York Jets' Zach Wilson (18.6). When these two teams played in Week 1, Brady was pressured at his highest clip of the season (31%), including two sacks by Parsons on third down in the red zone.
"It's always cool going against Brady because, shit, none of us know when his last game is," Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons said Thursday. "So hopefully we get the win and get to be known for being the last.. Like any other QB, he bleeds the same way.. He's just a better QB than most. So the challenge is higher."
On paper, if there's a team equipped to frustrate Brady and end his season, it's the Dallas Cowboys.
Tom Brady had the worst regular season of his career in 2022
Speaking of a frustrated Brady, the 45-year-old's 23rd NFL season is by far the least successful in his storied career. This season marks the first time a Brady-led team has had a losing record and scored under 20 points per game.
Tom Brady This Season
| Career Rank | ||
|---|---|---|
Losses | 9 | Worst |
Team PPG | 18.4 | Worst |
Pass Yards/Att | 6.4 | 2nd-worst |
One reason for the struggles is the Buccaneers have no offensive balance since they averaged an NFL-worst 76.4 rushing yards per game this season, the second-worst among playoff teams since the 1970 NFL/AFL merger.
Fewest Rushing Yards Per Game in Regular Season
Among Playoff Teams Since 1970
| Season | Team | Rush YPG |
|---|---|---|
2008 | Cardinals | 73.6 |
2022 | Buccaneers | 76.9 |
1999 | Lions | 77.8 |
2008 | Colts | 79.6 |
Leonard Fournette, who lit the Cowboys up for 127 rushing yards on 21 carries in Week 1, didn't have more than 75 rushing yards in a game the rest of the 2022 season. Because of their inability to run the ball, the Buccaneers called pass plays on two-thirds of their offensive plays, 66.7%, the highest-rate in the NFL. That plays right into the Cowboys defense's strengths as the league's best pressure-generating team. Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and the rest of the Dallas would much prefer their opponents drop back and pass since they're in the bottom-half of the league when it comes to run defense (129.3 rushing yards per game allowed, 22nd in the NFL) and inside the top ten of the NFL when it comes to defending the pass (200.9 passing yards per game, eighth in the NFL).
Another factor for Tampa Bay's offensive issues is that tight end Rob Gronkowski appears to have retired from football for good. This has hurt them in key situations this season. The Buccaneers ranked 21st in 3rd down conversion percentage (37.4%) and 22nd in the red zone touchdown percentage (52.4%) in 2022. They were 4th and 5th, respectively, from 2020-2021. Mike Evans went 11 straight games without a touchdown catch before exploding for three of his six this season against the Panthers in Week 17. Tampa has scored 11.7 fewer points per game this season compared to last season, the largest decline by any team since the 2016-2017 Falcons (-11.7). That Falcons team lost offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan during that time once he was hired by the San Francisco 49ers to become their head coach.
Cowboys have highest-scoring offense since Dak Prescott returned from injury
Even though Dak Prescott has committed an NFL-worst 15 turnovers since coming back from his thumb injury in Week 7, the Dallas Cowboys have still been the most dynamic in the league, leading the NFL in scoring offense (32.5 points per game), total offense (384.5 total yards per game) and third down offense (52.3% conversion rate).
Cowboys Since Dak Prescott Return From Injury in Week 7
| NFL Rank | ||
|---|---|---|
W-L | 8-3 | T-5th |
PPG | 32.5 | 1st |
Total YPG | 384.5 | 1st |
3rd Down Pct | 52.3% | 1st |
Red Zone TD Pct | 78.6% | 2nd |
Turnovers | 18* | 29th |
* Dak Prescott: 15 turnovers (most in NFL in span)
Another factor in the Cowboys explosive offense this year has been the emergence of running back Tony Pollard, who leads all non-quarterbacks in yards per touch (5.9). He had what is tied for his second-fewest touches in a game, eight, against the Buccaneers in Week 1, something that is unlikely to repeat itself. Pollard has become one of the NFL's most prolific weapons as one of only six players with over 1,000 rushing yards and 350 receiving yards this season joining Raiders running back Josh Jacobs, Titans running back Derrick Henry, 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, Packers running back Aaron Jones, and Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson. All of those players rank inside the top 15 in the league in touches this season while Pollard's 232 touches this year are 21st in the NFL. He'll have plenty left in the tank to make a major impact on Monday night.
As for Prescott, yes it's less than ideal that his 15 interceptions this season are tied for the most in NFL with Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills even though Prescott missed five games. However, he should have plenty of time to survey the field and hit his targets because the Tampa Bay pass rush that chased Patrick Mahomes all over the field in Super Bowl LV isn't what the Buccaneers have now. Tampa Bay is near the bottom of the league, 24th, in quarterback pressure rate this season at 31% thanks to linebacker Shaq Barrett's season-ending Achilles injury back in October. They ranked as third-best in that department, 37%, across the 2020 and 2021 seasons. If this game devolves into high-scoring affair, the Cowboys have the advantage facing a depleted Buccaneers defense.
The Dallas Cowboys have a number of advantages of the 2022 Tampa Bay Buccaneers across all three phases of football which is why they will finally knock off Tom Brady for the first time.
