NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on -- it's a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. For years now I've written up the win totals for CBS, so it's wild to me we now get them in mid-to-late March; we've always had to grind our way through May to get them released.

Caesar's dropped win totals for every single NFL team recently, so let's break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here, which we'll add each day as they get published:

                                                         AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
                                                         NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Before we dive into the AFC East, a couple quick notes. One, we're picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, if you like an over that's reasonably high, don't bet it now, because injuries are random. Four, I'm picking these as of March 30, so I'll lean more unders based on injuries. 

Finally, in case you have a question about the prices on these: if you bet $125 on the Bills to go over 10.5 wins (i.e. win 11 or more games) you'd win $100 and if you bet $100 on the Bills to go under 10.5 wins (i.e. win 10 or less games) you'd win $105.

Let's get to it.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Over 10.5 (-125) / Under 10.5 (+105)

The Bills entered 2022 as the clear Super Bowl favorite. Buffalo fell short and now there is a distinct sense of "the window closed" percolating publicly with the Bills. It's completely asinine. From the year 2000 through 2016 the Bills won nine games twice and double digit games zero times. Sean McDermott took over in 2017 and the Bills have one season with less than nine wins, one nine-win season and over the last four years won 10, 13, 11 and 13 games. The AFC East is undoubtedly improved and Buffalo took some losses in free agency, but this is a really good team with a really good roster and we're getting a discount on the Bills by a full game thanks to the QB situation in New York. This feels a lot like the Chiefs last year -- Josh Allen is still really good and still has good weapons. The coordinator situation is a concern but Ken Dorsey will take a nice step in his second season calling plays. This is not an easy schedule, but I think this team easily finds 12 wins. 

Pick: Bills OVER 10.5 (-125)*** BEST BET 

New York Jets

Over 9.5 (-135) / Under 9.5 (+105)

Obviously this all hinges on Aaron Rodgers being traded to the Jets. This number ~probably~ pops to 10 when the Rodgers news happens? It might just sit here as if this completely bakes in Rodgers being dealt to the Jets. The AFC West and the NFC East aren't easy crossover matchups. Maybe it sits here but Rodgers usually commands double digits preseason when it comes to win totals. The roster is good, we generally trust the coaching staff and a spite-fueled Rodgers is a problem for defenses. There will be some kind of learning curve, however, and the schedule is tough. You can't possibly take the over without the Rodgers deal being done at this point, so I'd look under with a plus price and Rodgers not actually being dealt yet. Everyone agrees it gets done, but if Rodgers stays with Green Bay or retires this number drops three games. 

Pick: Jets UNDER 9.5 (+105)

Miami Dolphins

Over 9.5 (+100) / Under (-130)

The Dolphins offer a nice win-total-wager corollary to the Jets -- while we wait on the Rodgers deal to know about New York's situation, we are also a bit in limbo on Tua Tagovailoa's health status. Miami picked up his fifth-year option and didn't pursue other quarterbacks this offseason, so we're led to believe Tua is good to go for 2023. I'm not suggesting otherwise, but you cannot bet the Dolphins to win double-digit games in March with a limited level of information and the inherent risk of additional offseason injury. The roster is really good on both sides of the ball. But even if you told me Tua played 17 games I would probably hesitate to take the over with the schedule.

Pick: Dolphins UNDER 9.5 (-130)

New England Patriots

Over 7.5 (-115) / Under 7.5 (-105)

Maybe the toughest over/under out there right now. Las Vegas projects the Patriots to go 8-9 essentially, just an average team. I have zero interest in betting against Bill Belichick, but if this roster was being coached by someone else on a different franchise, it would be easy to fade the Pats. Anyone who spent the last 20 years fading Belichick is down a ton of money. He's been average since Brady left, but you can make excuses for each of the seasons. Unfortunately one of the excuses is "he hired Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run his offense for a full season" -- I give Bill a permanent waiver for his moves based on history, but the natives are restless. Bill O'Brien should be a huge upgrade. Unfortunately the offensive personnel isn't that much better and the division is no longer a cakewalk. HAVING SAID THAT.......

Pick: Patriots OVER 7.5 (-105)