Last week was probably the most wild week of the 2022 NFL regular season. The Buffalo Bills fell to the Minnesota Vikings in what may go down as the game of the year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reasserted themselves as the best team in the NFC South with a win over the Seattle Seahawks in Germany and the Philadelphia Eagles lost their first game of the season to the Washington Commanders.
Sunday marked the first day in NFL HISTORY where three teams all won their games after trailing by double digits entering the fourth quarter. It was truly wild. So, how did this past week's results affect future odds? That's what we are here today to look at.
Super Bowl odds are fluid. Let's take a look at the current odds compared to where they were just a week ago. Below, we will list the Super Bowl odds for all 32 NFL teams, and then break down some of the noteworthy changes.
All NFL odds come via Caesars Sportsbook.
Team | Current Super Bowl Odds | Last week's Super Bowl Odds |
---|---|---|
Buffalo Bills | +380 | +280 |
+475 | +550 | |
Philadelphia Eagles | +650 | +500 |
+850 | +1200 | |
Minnesota Vikings | +1100 | +1600 |
+1300 | +1300 | |
+1400 | +1400 | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1600 | +2200 |
+1600 | +2200 | |
+3000 | +2500 | |
+3500 | +3000 | |
+3500 | +5000 | |
Seattle Seahawks | +5000 | +3500 |
+6000 | +6000 | |
+6000 | +7000 | |
+6000 | +8000 | |
+8000 | +10000 | |
+10000 | +6000 | |
+12500 | +15000 | |
Washington Commanders | +12500 | +25000 |
+15000 | +12500 | |
+15000 | +10000 | |
+15000 | +10000 | |
+15000 | +12500 | |
+20000 | +12500 | |
+20000 | +50000 | |
+30000 | +15000 | |
+50000 | +100000 | |
+50000 | +50000 | |
+50000 | +100000 | |
+100000 | +75000 | |
+100000 | +100000 |
Movement at the top
With the Bills' loss to the Vikings on Sunday, their Lombardi odds went from +280 to +380. This is why you shouldn't have bet on the Bills to win it all over the last month since there was no value. The Chiefs jumped the Eagles for second-shortest Super Bowl odds with their 10-point win over the Jaguars. They could be set to make a big run, as Kansas City has won 24 straight games in November and December. That's the longest such streak since 1970.
The Eagles went from +500 to +650 with their loss, but to be honest with you, I think that's a bit of an overreaction. I think the loss to the Commanders could be a good thing, as the Eagles can now move past the whole "undefeated" talk. It's not like Washington provided the game plan on how to beat Philly. Ron Rivera's squad controlled time of possession and won the turnover battle. That sets you up for a win in any scenario. I still see Philly as the best team in the NFC.
Vegas too high on 49ers?
The 49ers moved from +1200 to +850 with their 22-16 win at home over the banged-up Chargers -- where they didn't even cover the spread. Everyone and their mother believes the 49ers are primed for a huge second half of the season, since Kyle Shanahan's squad usually plays their best ball late in the year, and the team is also getting healthier and Christian McCaffrey should gain more confidence in the offense. But come on. Are we really going to put them in the elite tier with the Eagles, Chiefs and Bills? The 49ers would be a sweet value bet if the odds were longer, but they are way too short.
Buccaneers and Dolphins on the rise
The Buccaneers and Dolphins both moved from +2200 to +1600 this week. After Tampa Bay's win over Seattle, I'm convinced Tom Brady and Co. will win the NFC South. The Bucs have the third-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to Tankathon. As for the Dolphins -- they are absolutely rolling. Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel have won four straight, and sit atop the AFC East at 7-3. This offense looks like one of the best in the NFL, and former 49ers running back Jeff Wilson was a great trade-deadline addition. McDaniel made his name scheming for the run, and Shanahan gave him two former San Francisco running backs to help him thrive.