We are now 11 weeks through the 2022 NFL regular season, and our list of top three contenders hasn't changed. The Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are still the consensus top three teams in the NFL, but your personal order may have changed.
The Bills are 1-2 over the past three weeks while the Eagles finally lost a game, and then struggled against the Jeff Saturday-led Colts. The Chiefs on the other hand are thriving, and Patrick Mahomes has established himself as the odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP. If you were looking to place a Super Bowl bet today, who would you take? Is there any value outside of the top three?
Super Bowl odds are fluid. Let's take a look at the current odds compared to where they were just a week ago. Below, we will list the Super Bowl odds for the top 20 NFL teams, and then break down some of the noteworthy changes.
All NFL odds come via Caesars Sportsbook.
| Team | Current Super Bowl Odds | Last week's Super Bowl odds |
|---|---|---|
Buffalo Bills | +380 | +380 |
Kansas City Chiefs | +450 | +475 |
Philadelphia Eagles | +600 | +650 |
+650 | +850 | |
+1000 | +1400 | |
+1300 | +1300 | |
+1800 | +1600 | |
+1800 | +1100 | |
+1800 | +1600 | |
+2500 | +3000 | |
+2800 | +3500 | |
+5000 | +5000 | |
+5000 | +3500 | |
+6000 | +6000 | |
+8000 | +6000 | |
+10000 | +12500 | |
+10000 | +6000 | |
+15000 | +15000 | |
+15000 | +15000 | |
+15000 | +8000 |
Chiefs creeping in on favorite Bills
The Chiefs fell to the Bills last month, but Kansas City has now reeled off four straight wins. Mahomes has overtaken Josh Allen as the favorite to win NFL MVP, and the Chiefs just notched an incredible come-from-behind victory against the rival Chargers in primetime. The Bills on the other hand are 1-2 over the past three weeks, and with the AFC East division being so competitive, one has to wonder, when will the Chiefs overtake the Bills as Super Bowl favorites? Buffalo didn't experience any movement in Super Bowl odds over the last week, but Kansas City moved from +475 to +450
Big Vikings-Cowboys ramifications
The Cowboys made sure we quickly forgot about their embarrassing loss to the Packers in Week 10, as they pounded the previously one-loss Vikings in Minnesota, 40-3. It was a beatdown from beginning to end. Sunday marked the largest road win in Cowboys franchise history and the second-largest home loss in Vikings franchise history. With this loss, the Vikings moved from +1100 to +1800 to win the Super Bowl, while the Cowboys moved from +1400 to +1000. "America's Team" now has the fifth-shortest odds to win it all.
Vegas still incredibly high on 49ers
Last week, I questioned Vegas moving the 49ers from +1200 to +850 following their 22-16 win over the Chargers. After their Monday night 38-10 beatdown of the lowly Arizona Cardinals in Mexico, San Francisco moved from +850 to +650! Are the 49ers really the fourth-best team in the NFL? There's no doubt they are a talented squad, but I just don't see any value betting on them right now. They face the Saints, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Commanders next, in that order.
Jets grounded
The Jets saw some major movement following their 10-3 loss to the Patriots on Sunday. Robert Saleh's squad fell from +6000 to win the Super Bowl all the way to +10000. New York's defense is incredible, but the offense is terrible. Zach Wilson completed 9 of 22 passes for 77 yards, and gained two total yards of offense in the second half on Sunday. Now, Saleh won't commit to Wilson as the starter this week, as he made a dumb remark in the postgame press conference about him not feeling like he let down his defense despite an embarrassing performance. The Jets aren't a Super Bowl contender just yet, but they are on the right track. Now, they just need to figure out the quarterback situation.
