2025 AFC East futures: What our projection model says about betting the Bills, Dolphins, Jets and Patriots

The SportsLine Projection Model sees one value play in the AFC East division winner odds

Water is wet. The sky is high. And the Buffalo Bills rule the AFC East.

Say what you want about the Bills' annual failures in the postseason, but they've been certainties in the regular season. They have won the AFC East each of the last five years, and last season Buffalo (13-4) romped in the division by five games over the second place Miami Dolphins (8-9).

Led by reigning NFL MVP John Allen, the Bills are heavy favorites to experience the joy of six straight division titles this season. They're -240 favorites to win the AFC East. The Dolphins (+650), New England Patriots (+750) and New York Jets (+1800) are big longshots.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, already has crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has projections on each team's win total and chances to win the division, the AFC and the Super Bowl. And based on the odds being offered at sportsbooks, there is value to be had.

AFC East division futures and model projections

Team	Model div sim%	Implied model odds	Best market odds
Buffalo Bills	92.0%	-1150	-240 (FanDuel)
Miami Dolphins	4.6%	+2074	+650 (DraftKings)
New York Jets	2.9%	+3348	+1800 (DraftKings)
New England Patriots	0.5%	+19900	+750 (BetMGM)

The SportsLine Projection Model believes the Bills are a near cinch to win the AFC East and would consider anything better than -1150 odds a value play. All of the sportsbooks have Buffalo at well under that price, but the best (-240) is at FanDuel Sportsbook. That implied probability at -240 is 70.6%, far below the model's simulation of 92.0%, which means the Bills are massive value at that number according to the model.

Because the model is so high on the Buffalo, it does not see value with any of the other three teams in the AFC East. Even the Jets, who are +1800 at DraftKings Sportsbook, are not worth playing according to the model, which would need at least +3348 on Gang Green.

Buffalo Bills futures

• Win total model projection: 12.7
• Best market win total odds: Over 12.5 (+135, Caesars)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 98.6% (-7043)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: -650 (BetMGM)
• Model sim% to win AFC: 39.6% (+153)
• Best market odds to win AFC: +375 (BetMGM)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 28.6% (+250)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +750 (BetMGM, FanDuel)

The model is extremely high on the Bills this season, which means there's value everywhere on the board. Perhaps the best value, according to the model, is +750 to win the Super Bowl, which can be found at multiple sportsbooks. The model sees anything above +250 as a positive play. Also, BetMGM has Buffalo at +375 to win the AFC, while the model thinks that +153 is fair. The model projects the Bills to win 12.7 games this season, which makes gives the Over 12.5 (+135) wager at Caesars a slight edge. While -650 on Buffalo to make the playoffs is extreme value based on the model's projection of 98.6%, a bettor still has to wager $650 to win $100 and lock up that money for months to do so.

Miami Dolphins futures

• Win total model projection: 8.0 
• Best market win total odds: Under 8.5 (-150, BetMGM, FanDuel)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 31.0% (+223)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: +176 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win AFC: 0.9% (+11011)
• Best market odds to win AFC: +4000 (DraftKings)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0.2% (+49900)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +8000 (DraftKings)

Because of the model's love affair with the Bills, there's precious little value on any of the other three teams division, including the Dolphins, who finished second to Buffalo last season and are projected to finish second again this year. The model does not think there's any value at any of the sportsbooks betting on Miami to make the playoffs, win the AFC or win the Super Bowl. The one wager that is worth considering is Under 8.5 wins (-150) at multiple sportsbooks. The model projects 8.0 wins.

New York Jets futures

• Win total model projection: 7.5
• Best market win total odds: Over 5.5 (-140, FanDuel)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 21.5% (+365)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: +520 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win AFC: 0.4% (+24900)
• Best market odds to win AFC: +11000 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0.1% (+99900)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +22000 (FanDuel)

While the sportsbooks prefer the Patriots over the Jets in the AFC East, the model prefers New York. That results in some value plays on the Jets. In particular, New York is +520 to make the playoffs at FanDuel. That's a positive play considering the model has the Jets making the playoffs 21.5% of the time, which equates to +365 odds. Also, the model likes the team to win 7.5 games this season while sportsbooks are setting New York's win total at 5.5 (Over -140).

New England Patriots futures

• Win total model projection: 6.0
• Best market win total odds: Under 6.5 (+340, DraftKings)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 6.1% (+1539)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: +164 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win AFC: 0.0% (N/A)
• Best market odds to win AFC: +6500 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0.0% (N/A)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +10000 (Caesars)

The model is down on New England in coach Mike Vrabel's first season. As a result, the only play on the Patriots that the model has identified as value is Under 6.5 wins at plus-money (+340). The model projects 6.0 wins after the team won just four games last season. New England is not worth playing in any of the other markets according to the model.