This season, the Houston Texans will look to become the first franchise to win three straight AFC South titles since the Peyton Manning-led Colts won five in a row from 2003-07, and the odds say they are the clear team to beat.
CJ Stroud and the Texans, who went 11-8 last season and won the division by two games over Indianapolis, are +115 favorites to finish atop the AFC South again. The rest of the division figures to be a dogfight, with the Jaguars (+333), Colts (+360) and Titans (+800) battling for second, according to the odds.
Indianapolis owns a record nine AFC South titles but hasn't won one since the 2014 season.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, has crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has projections on each team's win total and chances to win the division, the AFC and the Super Bowl. And based on the odds being offered at sportsbooks, there is value to be had.
AFC South division futures and model projections
| Team | Model div sim% | Implied model odds | Best market odds |
| Houston Texans | 58.9% | -143 | +115 (DraftKings, FanDuel) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 20.5% | +388 | +333 (BetMGM) |
| Tennessee Titans | 10.7% | +835 | +800 (BetMGM) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 10.0% | +900 | +360 (DraftKings) |
The SportsLine Projection Model believes the Texans are almost 60% to win the AFC South and would consider anything better than -143 odds a value play, including the best market price of +115 at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. Because the model is high on Houston, none of the three other teams in the division represent value.
The Colts, in fact, are a major fade, according to the model. The projections give them a 10.0% chance of winning the division and would need +900 for fair value, but the best price available on Indianapolis is +360 at DraftKings.
Houston Texans futures
- Win total model projection: 9.2
- Best market win total odds: Under 9.5 (-120, DraftKings)
- Model sim% to make playoffs: 67.0% (-203)
- Best market odds to make playoffs: -140 (BetMGM, FanDuel)
- Model sim% to win AFC: 4.3% (+2226)
- Best market odds to win AFC: +1800 (DraftKings)
- Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 1.6% (+6150)
- Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +4000 (DraftKings)
The model likes the Texans in the AFC South but not in the AFC playoffs or beyond. Perhaps the best market to play Houston is making the playoffs. Bettors are getting -140 on that possibility, while the model deems -203 as fair. Also, the numbers say Under 9.5 wins (-120) is fair; the model projects 9.2 wins. However the model doesn't like the team's chances once it gets to the postseason. The best prices on the Texans to win the AFC (+1800) and the Super Bowl (+4000) fall well shy of prices the model considers fair value.
Jacksonville Jaguars futures
- Win total model projection: 7.3
- Best market win total odds: Under 7.5 (+105, DraftKings)
- Model sim% to make playoffs: 27.8% (+260)
- Best market odds to make playoffs: +160 (BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel)
- Model sim% to win AFC: 0.3% (+33233)
- Best market odds to win AFC: +6500 (Caesars)
- Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0.1% (+99900)
- Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +15000 (Caesars)
The projections are not high on the Jaguars in Liam Coen's first season as head coach. In fact, the market the model likes best is win totals. The projections have the team winning 7.3 games this season (it went 4-13 last season), which means there's a slight edge in Under 7.5 wins (+105). The model would stay away from the Jaguars making the playoffs, winning the AFC and winning the Super Bowl.
Tennessee Titans futures
- Win total model projection: 6.4
- Best market win total odds: Over 5.5 (-125, FanDuel)
- Model sim% to make playoffs: 15.4% (+549)
- Best market odds to make playoffs: +440 (FanDuel)
- Model sim% to win AFC: 0.2% (+49900)
- Best market odds to win AFC: +10000 (BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel)
- Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0% (N/A)
- Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +23000 (FanDuel)
Even with the addition of No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward, the model does not see much value in backing the Titans. The one market that makes sense based on the projections is win totals. The model says Tennessee wins 6.4 games this season (the team won just three games last season), which makes Over 5.5 (-125) a reasonable play. However the prices on the Titans to make the playoffs, win the AFC and win the Super Bowl do not provide enough value, according to the model.
Indianapolis Colts futures
- Win total model projection: 6.4
- Best market win total odds: Under 7.5 (-110, BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel)
- Model sim% to make playoffs: 14.4% (+594)
- Best market odds to make playoffs: +176 (FanDuel)
- Model sim% to win AFC: 0.3% (+33233)
- Best market odds to win AFC: +6000 (DraftKings)
- Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0.1% (+99900)
- Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +12000 (DraftKings)
The model is especially low on Indianapolis this season, predicting the team to finish last in the AFC South. All four sportsbooks—BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel—are offering -110 on Under 7.5 wins for the Colts, and that is more than fair; the projections say Indianapolis is more likely to win six games than seven, much less eight. The model says to stay away from playoff, AFC and Super Bowl markets with the Colts.
