2025 AFC win total best bets: Bills land No. 1 seed while Browns finish last in conference, per projections
The SportsLine Projection Model shares its win total projections for every AFC team while identifying three best bets
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7 min read
Seven teams in the AFC reached double digits in victories each of the last two seasons, with five recording 10 or more wins both years. Only the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos joined the group in 2024, as the Chargers more than doubled their win total (five in 2023, 11 in 2024) and the Broncos posted two more victories (eight, 10). Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins both won 11 games in 2023 but dropped to three and eight, respectively, last year.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been the class of the conference since Andy Reid became head coach in 2013, posting 10 or more wins in 11 of his 12 seasons, winning the AFC West title each of the last nine, making five Super Bowl appearances and capturing three championships. The Chargers and Broncos appear to be getting closer to challenging for the division crown, however, while the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens have become perennial threats for the top spot in the conference.
Buffalo has recorded 10 or more wins every year since 2019, while Baltimore has reached double figures six of the last seven seasons. And according to the SportsLine Projection Model, both clubs figure to pile up the victories again in 2025.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, already has crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has projections on each team's win total and chances to win the division, the AFC and the Super Bowl. And based on the odds being offered at sportsbooks, there is value to be had.
AFC win total projections and best odds
| AFC | Proj. Wins | Best Market Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 12.8 | 11.5 (Over -140/Under +120, FanDuel) |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.6 | 11.5 (Over +100/Under -120, Caesars) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.3 | 11.5 (Over +100/Under -120, DraftKings) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.9 | 9.5 (Over -120/Under +100, Caesars) |
| Houston Texans | 9.2 | 9.5 (Over +100/Under -120, DraftKings) |
| Denver Broncos | 9.2 | 9.5 (Over +105/Under -124, BetMGM) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.8 | 8.5 (Over +100/Under -120, BetMGM) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.7 | 9.5 (Over -130/Under +110, FanDuel) |
| Miami Dolphins | 8.2 | 8.5 (Over +125/Under -150, FanDuel, BetMGM) |
| New York Jets | 7.6 | 5.5 (Over -135/Under +115 FanDuel) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.3 | 7.5 (Over -120/Under +100, FanDuel, BetMGM) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6.9 | 7.5 (Over +110/Under -130, Caesars) |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 | 5.5 (Over -125/Under +105, FanDuel) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6.4 | 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM) |
| New England Patriots | 6.2 | 8.5 (Over +100/Under -120, DraftKings) |
| Cleveland Browns | 4.8 | 5.5 (Over +105/Under -125, Caesars) |
The model sees Buffalo, Baltimore and Kansas City reaching double digits again this season, with the Chiefs finishing with nearly five fewer wins than they racked up last year. Kansas City shared the NFL lead with 15 wins in 2024, so the -4.7 difference is the biggest drop in the AFC. Conversely, the model predicts 6.5 victories for the Tennessee Titans, more than twice the amount they had last year (three). It also sees the Jacksonville Jaguars increasing their win total from four in 2024 to 7.3 this campaign. Meanwhile, the model only projects a 1.8 increase by the Cleveland Browns, who won only three games last season. And it has the Cincinnati Bengals with just the eighth-highest win total in 2025 at 8.7 after they finished with nine each of the last two years.
Now we'll take a closer look at the model's top three win total plays for the 2025 NFL season.
1. Buffalo Bills Over 11.5 (-140, FanDuel)
- Win total model projection: 12.8
Many expected the Bills to take a step backward last season after parting ways with their top two receivers, as Stefon Diggs was traded to the Texans and Gabe Davis signed with the Jaguars as a free agent. But Josh Allen did a superb job with a less-experienced receiving corps and went on to win the NFL MVP Award, while running back James Cook posted his second consecutive 1,000-yard season and shared the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns after recording only two in 2023 as Buffalo posted its third 13-win season in five years.
The Bills made what could turn out to be an excellent addition on the other side of the ball during the offseason by signing 29-year-old defensive end Joey Bosa to a one-year, $12.6 million contract. The reward certainly outweighs the risk, especially if the 2016 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year can remain healthy and return to the form that saw him register more than 10 sacks four times in his first six seasons with the Chargers.
Buffalo faces five reigning division winners this season, including the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, but the good news is that four of those matchups are at home. The Bills also have seven games against opponents who had five wins or fewer in 2024, including two each versus the Jets and Patriots. Buffalo has dominated their AFC East rivals of late, winning 12 of their last 13 meetings with the Dolphins, eight of 10 with the Jets and seven of 10 with the Patriots.
Despite Buffalo's tough schedule, the model believes the team will have another strong regular season in 2025, making this prop at FanDuel appealing.
2. Kansas City Chiefs Under 11.5 (-120, DraftKings)
- Win total model projection: 10.3
According to the model, Kansas City will win its 10th consecutive AFC West title in 2025. However, it doesn't see the Chiefs coming close to matching the franchise-record 15 victories they posted last year. In fact, the model feels they will come closer to registering 10 wins.
A lot went right for the Chiefs to win 15 games in 2024, and they can't be expected to have the same amount of good fortune this season, no matter how good they are. Patrick Mahomes is on an elite level and hopes to have wideouts Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown for a full campaign as they were limited to four and two games, respectively, last year due to injuries.
But Travis Kelce is 35 years old and coming off a season in which he had career lows of 823 receiving yards and three touchdown catches. In addition, Kansas City's offensive line has become a concern, as it struggled to protect Mahomes in the the Super Bowl loss to the Eagles and traded guard Joe Thuney to the Chicago Bears during the offseason.
Like Buffalo, the Chiefs face five 2024 division winners this season, with four of those games being at home. They also have five games against teams that posted fewer than six wins last year, including two versus the Raiders. But Las Vegas played Kansas City tough, losing both meetings by a total of nine points.
Both of the Chiefs' wins over the Chargers in 2024 also were one-score decisions, as was their victory against the Broncos thanks to a blocked field-goal attempt as time expired. And one of Kansas City's two losses came at Denver, albeit with most of its starters out of the lineup.
All signs point to a reduced amount of wins for the Chiefs in 2025, and the model is in full agreement, making this play at DraftKings attractive.
3. New England Patriots Under 8.5 (-120, DraftKings)
- Win total model projection: 6.2
The once-mighty Patriots certainly have fallen, and fallen hard as they have managed to record only four wins each of the last two seasons. The model feels there will be improvement under new head coach Mike Vrabel, but not as much as many pundits -- and some sportsbooks -- expect.
Vrabel, who was a linebacker for New England from 2001-08 and won three Super Bowls with the club, began his head-coaching career by guiding the Titans to four consecutive winning seasons. Tennessee made three playoff appearances in that span, winning the AFC South title twice and reaching the AFC Championship Game as a wild card, but followed with back-to-back losing campaigns that cost Vrabel his job.
New England dismissed another former linebacker-turned-head coach in Jerod Mayo after posting a 4-13 record in his first season at the helm last year and replaced him with Vrabel, who inherits a team that was 30th in scoring, 31st in total offense and last in passing in 2024. The Patriots also had issues defensively and were last in the NFL in sacks, but they made some significant additions via free agency that should help in all facets.
Selected with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Drake Maye showed some encouraging signs despite the level of talent with which he had to work as a rookie. The Patriots made improvements to the offensive line via free agency and the draft while signing top-notch receiver Diggs and drafting running back TreVeyon Henderson and wideout Kyle Williams within the first three rounds last month.
The Patriots' schedule also gives hope for improvement, as they have eight games against teams that recorded five wins or fewer in 2024 - including two versus the Jets. Not including the Bills, only three of their opponents made the playoffs last year.
Considering all of these factors, the model sees New England winning more than four games in 2025 -- just not as many as some sportsbooks believe.
