49ers vs. Raiders: Preview, prediction, time, how to watch, stream, statistics to know for 'Thursday Night Football'
Everything you need to know about the battle for the Bay Area
It's somewhat easy to understand why the NFL thought it was a good idea when making the schedule to put the San Francisco 49ers and Oakland Raiders in primetime.
The reasons were many: It's perhaps the final Battle of the Bay Area before the Raiders officially move to Las Vegas! Jon Gruden vs. Kyle Shanahan! Stars all over the field! Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Derek Carr! Khalil Mack! Amari Cooper! Marshawn Lynch! Jerick McKinnon! Instead, Mack is in Chicago, Cooper is in Dallas, Garoppolo and McKinnon are at home with torn ACLs, Lynch's career might be over and somebody named Nick Mullens might be quarterbacking the 49ers in a national TV game (8:20 p.m., NFL Network, Stream on FUBOTV).
But it is, however, still Thursday. And that means we're still going to break down what you should be looking out for as the 49ers and Raiders do battle in the bay.
When the 49ers have the ball
As of this writing, we still do not know who will be under center for the Niners in this game. C.J. Beathard, who has been filling in for Garoppolo, injured his wrist last week and did not practice on Tuesday. He's listed as questionable and Kyle Shanahan openly speculated that Mullens might have to start, but the most recent reports indicated it was possible Beathard could go. We don't know much about Mullens' skill level, but he did throw three interceptions and lose two fumbles in just 93 snaps during the preseason. Needless to say, Beathard is the preferable option for San Francisco.
Whoever is under center will presumably be targeting tight end George Kittle early and often. Kittle leads the team in targets, catches, and receiving yards, and has emerged as one of the best all-around tight ends in the NFL due to his combination of receiving and blocking ability. The Raiders have struggled to contain tight ends in the passing game this season, yielding an NFL-high five touchdowns the players at the position. Additionally, linebacker Tahir Whitehead has just been smoked in coverage every which way, allowing a perfect 158.3 passer rating on throws in his direction. If the 49ers can engineer a matchup of Kittle on Whitehead, they'd be wise to pursue it.
Pretty much all of San Francisco's perimeter receivers have been in and out of the lineup this season due to various injuries. Marquise Goodwin, Pierre Garcon, Trent Taylor, and rookie Dante Pettis have all missed time, making Kendrick Bourne the only wideout who has played in all eight of the team's games. Bourne had his best outing of the season last week, catching seven passes for 71 yards, and his speed could prove useful against a Raiders defense that has not exactly done well dealing with quick players.
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Oakland's pass defense has been particularly vulnerable against players from the slot (25th in DVOA, per Football Outsiders), tight ends (30th), and running backs (31st), but has also been largely unable to guard against deep passes (30th), perhaps indicating Goodwin could break free for a long-gainer if Beathard or Mullen is given time to look downfield. And let's be honest, given the state of the Raiders' pass rush (Hi, Khalil Mack!), they'll probably have more than enough time to do so.
San Francisco's rushing attack has been all over the place this season, but it has, for the most part, been surprisingly effective. With McKinnon out, Matt Breida has largely acted as the lead ball-carrier, alternately rotating snaps with Alfred Morris and Raheem Mostert. Breida has been the most effective rusher, averaging 5.8 yards per carry on 87 runs, while Morris has been largely shut down, averaging 3.6 yards a pop. Mostert looked explosive in Weeks 6 and 7 against the Packers and Rams, but then saw just two carries during last week's loss to the Cardinals. The Raiders have not exactly been stalwarts stopping the run, so whichever back plays a role in this game should have an opportunity to make some hay. Of course, things will be a bit more difficult if Mullens is under center, as the Raiders seem likely to dare him to beat them through the air rather than allowing Breida and company to get going on the ground.
When the Raiders have the ball
So, the Raiders' No. 1 running back (Lynch) is out, probably for the season and perhaps for good. Their No. 1 receiver (Cooper) has been traded to Dallas. The dynamic receiver they traded for on draft day, only to cut him prior to the season and then re-sign him a week later (Martavis Bryant), is barely seeing the field, having played only seven snaps last week. Starting tackle Donald Penn is on IR, and the two rookies bookending their offensive line having been two of the very worst linemen in the NFL this season. But other than that, the Raiders' offense is in great shape.
Right now, things essentially run through Doug Martin on the ground and tight end Jared Cook and running back Jalen Richard in the air.
Martin ran well in his debut as Lynch's fill-in last week (13 carries, 72 yards) but he lost a crucial fumble and had averaged (seriously) 2.9 yards per carry over the past two years before signing with the Raiders this offseason. Gruden has talked him up as a "feature back" and he did look more explosive last week than at any time this season, but it's difficult to see him sustaining much effectiveness given his recent history. That said, San Francisco's run defense has been somewhat friendly this season, yielding an average of 102.9 rushing yards per game as well as seven rushing touchdowns. Sideline-to-sideline linebacker Reuben Foster is also out for this game, giving the Raiders more of a chance to get their running game going.
A pass game that runs through the middle of the field is a good one against the Niners, especially with Foster out. San Francisco ranks 28th in DVOA against the slot, 20th against tight ends, and 13th against running backs, per Football Outsiders. That's good news for Cook and slot man Seth Roberts, who emerged as Derek Carr's top receiver last week in the Raiders' first game without Cooper.
Jordy Nelson should have a bit tougher go of things on the outside as he is likely to see a lot of Richard Sherman, but could do some damage if and when he matches up with Ahkello Witherspoon, who has struggled badly this season after a strong 2017. Among the 200 players who have been targeted at least 10 times in coverage, according to Sports Info Solutions, the 127.5 passer rating allowed by Witherspoon on throws in his direction ranks 187th.
Even accounting for all that, though, the Raiders have just not really shown much of an ability to make opposing defenses pay for their shortcomings throughout this season. They engaged in a shootout with the Browns and got 28 points on the board against the Colts last week, but other than that have not exceeded 20 points, even while facing a string of average-ish defenses. San Francisco's defense isn't great, but it's not like that has mattered all that much this year.
Prediction: 49ers 21, Raiders 17