The Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins start Week 3 with a primetime battle on Thursday Night Football. The Bills are 2-0 after picking up a 30-10 win over the New York Jets. As for the Dolphins, they are 0-2 after falling to the New England Patriots 33-27 last week. According to the latest Week 3 NFL odds, the Bills are 11.5-point favorites. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets play at 1 p.m. ET, and the model is backing the Over on 44.5 total points in this contest. Meanwhile, the model is taking the Under in the Patriots vs. Steelers Week 3 game. Those NFL picks are part of an AFC East parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook that pays out over 5-1.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 37-17 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Three Sunday AFC East betting picks for NFL Week 3 (odds subject to change):
- Dolphins vs. Bills -11.5 (-114)
- Jets vs. Buccaneers: Over 44.5 points (-105)
- Steelers vs. Patriots: Under 44.5 points (-110)
Combining the model's three picks into an AFC East parlay at FanDuel would result in a payout of +562 (risk $100 to win $562).
Dolphins vs. Bills -11.5 (-114, FanDuel)
The Bills look like one of the best teams in the league, scoring 30-plus points in consecutive games. After a comeback win over the Ravens in Week 1, they dominated the New York Jets in a 20-point victory on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have lost two straight games and have to travel on a short week to Buffalo. The Bills have won four straight games and 13 of the last 14 games against Miami. SportsLine's model has the Buffalo covering the spread in 57% of simulations and taking home a 36-21 win.
Jets vs. Buccaneers, Over 44.5 points (-105, FanDuel)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have started the season 2-0 with two gritty road victories. They head back home, where they averaged 28.6 points per game last season. In two games, Baker Mayfield has 382 passing yards with five passing touchdowns. The Jets may be without Justin Fields (concussion), but have Tyrod Taylor ready to step up. In Week 1, they poured in 32 points, showcasing they have the talent to put up points. The Over cashed in 12 of Tampa Bay's games last season. SportsLine's model is calling for these teams to combine for 50 points, resulting in the Over hitting in 57% of simulations.
Steelers vs. Patriots, Under 44.5 points (-110, FanDuel)
The Patriots picked up their first win of the season last week against the Dolphins. In Week 1, they had a rough opener where they only scored 13 points. Pittsburgh had a shaky Week 2 loss itself, falling 31-17 to the Seattle Seahawks. The Steelers have yet to crack 300 yards of total offense this season. SportsLine's model is expecting more of a defensive match on Sunday with Pittsburgh taking a 24-19 win, helping the Under hit in 58% of simulations.
