Two of the NFL's hottest teams meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday when the Atlanta Falcons host the Minnesota Vikings in Week 13. The hometown Falcons are field-goal favorites, up a half-point from an open of 2.5.

The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47, down a half-point from where it opened.

Before you lock in your pick for this must-see NFC showdown, you need to see what Vegas legend Micah Roberts has to say.

Last week, in an AFC showdown, Roberts told SportsLine readers to grab Raiders -4.5 in their game against the Broncos, saying he was betting against Denver QB Paxton Lynch. The result: Lynch was a disaster and Oakland won by seven. Anyone who followed his advice cashed easily.

That improved Roberts to 16-10 in his last 26 NFL against the spread picks.

Part of his success: Roberts has worked in the Las Vegas sports book industry for 20 years, including a 13-year run as Station Casinos' book director; he can spot a bad line a mile away. 

Now, Roberts has locked in a strong pick for Falcons-Vikings, and he's sharing it over at SportsLine.

Roberts knows the 7-4 Falcons have been rolling over their competition lately. They look like the Falcons that went to the Super Bowl last season, outscoring their opponents 95-58 during their three-game win streak over the Cowboys, Seahawks, and Buccaneers.

The Falcons likely will get RB Devonta Freeman back this week, who cleared the concussion protocol and has been practicing. And last Sunday, WR Julio Jones went off, catching 12 passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns.

QB Matt Ryan has thrown for multiple TDs in four of his last five games and cleared 300 yards twice over that span. His 7.99 yards per attempt is fifth in the league.

But just because the Falcons have been electric doesn't mean they'll cover a three-point spread, especially against the 9-2 Vikings.

Minnesota is 8-3 against the spread this season, the second-best mark in the NFL. Defensively, the Vikes are fifth in points allowed (17.7), second against the run (75.5 ypg), and fifth in total yards allowed (290.4).

Minnesota defensive end Everson Griffen is second in the NFL with 12 sacks.

The Vikings aren't just about defense, either. QB Case Keenum has piloted a ship that's in the top 10 in both points scored (24.6) and total offense (375.7 ypg). He's accounted for 10 TDs over the last four games and has held off Teddy Bridgewater for the starting job.

WR Adam Thielen is third in the NFL with 1,000 receiving yards, fourth in receptions with 70, fifth in targets with 107, and third in catches of at least 20 yards with 16. He's an elite WR1 who has scored in three of his last four games.

Roberts knows there's a huge x-factor you're not thinking about that determines which side of Vikings-Falcons you need to be all over.

So which side should you back in Falcons-Vikings on Sunday? Visit SportsLine now to see what big x-factor determines which side of Falcons-Vikings you need to be all over, all from the Vegas legend who has nailed 16 of his last 26 NFL picks, and find out.