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The Green Bay Packers will look to continue their home success over the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football when they meet at Lambeau Field in a key NFC North matchup. Green Bay (7-3) has won four consecutive home games over Chicago (5-5) and 10 of the past 12. The Packers are 3-1 at home in 2020, while the Bears are 3-2 on the road. Green Bay has also won five of seven conference games this year, while Chicago is 5-3 against NFC foes.

The game from Green Bay, Wis., is slated to start at 8:20 p.m. ET. Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 2-0 all-time against the Bears, while Chicago coach Matt Nagy is 1-3 vs. Green Bay. The Packers are favored by 7.5-points in the latest Bears vs. Packers odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 44.5. Before making any Packers vs. Bears picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 19-10 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning almost $800. The model also enters Week 12 on an incredible 115-75 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Bears vs. Packers. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Bears vs. Packers:

  • Bears vs. Packers spread: Packers -7.5
  • Bears vs. Packers over-under: 44.5 points
  • Bears vs. Packers money line: Bears +310, Packers -380
  • CHI: Minus-three in turnover differential
  • GB: Safety Raven Greene had his second career forced fumble against Indianapolis last week

Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay continues to get good production out of its receiving and tight end corps. Wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been solid for much of the season and has a receiving touchdown in two of his last three games. He is also looking for his fourth game in a row with 50 or more receiving yards. For the season, Valdes-Scantling has 25 receptions for 518 yards (20.7 average) and four touchdowns. He has eight explosive plays of 20 or more yards and converted 19 first downs.

Robert Tonyan hauled in his sixth touchdown catch of the season last week against the Colts, most among NFC tight ends. Tonyan has 32 receptions for 391 yards (12.2 average). He also has seven plays of 20 or more yards with 141 yards after the catch and has converted on 19 first downs. Green Bay's passing attack is averaging 277.0 yards per game through the air thus far this season, which ranks eighth in the NFL.

Why the Bears can cover

Chicago always seems to play the Packers close, with the last five meetings decided by eight points or less. Wide receiver Allen Robinson is the Bears' top weapon. He led the team with six receptions for 43 yards in the Week 10 loss to Minnesota. He has eight games this season with five receptions or more, tied for second-most in the NFL. He had seven receptions for 125 yards in the last meeting against Green Bay. He will be looking for his third game in a row vs. Green Bay with seven or more catches and 100-plus receiving yards.

Also playing well for the Bears is former Packers tight end Jimmy Graham, who has four receiving touchdowns in five road games this year. He had 93 receptions for 1,083 yards and five TDs in two seasons with Green Bay. This year, Graham is fourth on the Bears in receiving with 35 catches for 302 yards and five touchdowns. He has two explosive plays of 20 or more yards and 22 first-down conversions.

How to make Bears vs. Packers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it's calling for 47 total points. It has also generated a strong against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here

So who wins Packers vs. Bears on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Bears spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,800 on its NFL picks over the past five seasons, and find out.