The Battle for Ohio will wrap up Week 8 in the NFL as the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns are set to square off on "Monday Night Football" from FirstEnergy Stadium. These AFC North clubs have been trending in two different directions entering this primetime matchup. For Cincy, they've won four of their last five and have begun to reestablish themselves as a legit contender in the conference. Meanwhile, the Browns are losers in four straight and three of those losses have come by one score.
One thing Cleveland won't have to worry about as they look to snap this losing skid is the presence of Bengals star wideout Ja'Marr Chase after he suffered a hip injury that is expected to sideline him for multiple weeks.
Here, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we'll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this showdown unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Oct. 31 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium (Cleveland, Ohio)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Bengals -3, O/U 45
Line movement
The lookahead on this line had the Bengals as a 2.5-point favorite. That ticked up to Bengals -3 the Saturday before Week 7 and held throughout. There was a brief moment this week where the line shot up a half-point to Bengals -3.5, but it has since settled at a field goal.
The pick: Browns +3. The Chase injury is a difference-maker for me. Cincinnati was just starting to wake up offensively and that correlated with the star wideout getting hot. Now, it'll be interesting to see how the Bengals alter their offensive approach. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow hasn't played the Browns particularly well, going 0-3 SU in his career against Cleveland. In Week 9 last season, Burrow's 25-point loss to the Browns was the worst margin of defeat in any game of his career and he was held to zero touchdowns and two picks in the loss. Kevin Stefanski is also 4-0 against the Bengals as the Browns head coach.
Key trend: Bengals have lost 12 straight road primetime games (longest streak by any team since the 1970 merger).
Over/Under total
The total opened at 45 in the lookahead and climbed as high as 47.5 coming out of Week 7. However, the Chase injury may have been the culprit as to why this number has gone back down and currently sits at its original 45-point total.
The pick: Under 45. Again, Chase is a factor in this decision. The Under was 5-0 in the Bengals first five games of the year but was 2-0 over the last two weeks, which is when Chase and the offense started to find their footing. Now, I think they revert to a more conservative approach and are facing a Browns team that loves the run the football. Naturally, that way of attack should limit the scoring ceiling for this game.
Key trend: Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine meetings in Cleveland.
Joe Burrow props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -151, Under +110)
- Passing yards: 266.5 (Over +100, Under -137)
- Rushing yards: 16.5 (Over -106, Under -129)
- Passing attempts: 33.5 (Over -131, Under -104)
- Longest pass completion: 39.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
- Completions: 22.5 (Over -129, Under -106)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +118, Under -163)
With Cleveland's pass rush headlined by Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney, I think Burrow gets pressured into an interception in this game, so the Over 0.5 picks at +118 is enticing. While I do think that the absence of Chase will impact the offense some, I don't believe they're going to take the ball completely out of Burrow's hand and simply run through Joe Mixon on the ground. With that in mind, going Over his 33.5 pass attempts at -131 is a good way to lead. He's gone over that number in all but one game this season.
Jacoby Brissett props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +152, Under -214)
- Passing yards: 218.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 12.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
- Passing attempts: 30.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
- Longest pass completion: 33.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
- Completions: 19.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
Brissett may have just a 62.7 completion percentage this season, but the Browns quarterback has gone over his completions total in every game this season except the Week 1 opener against Carolina. That's one area to lean in his prop market, as is the Over on his interceptions total at -111. Brissett has thrown a pick in four of his seven starts this season and has tossed one in three of his last four games.
Player props to consider
Joe Mixon total rushing yards: Over 67.5 (-119). The Browns currently rank last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (174.5) and rushing touchdowns (9) allowed this season, setting up a potentially big night for Mixon. He's only gone over this total twice this season but has seen at least 14 carries in all but one game. If he continues to see that volume against this weak run defense, he should go over.
Hayden Hurst total receptions: Over 3.5 (-127). I expect Hurst to be one of the main benefactors of Chase's absence. He's built up a nice rapport with Burrow and has seen 18 targets over his last three games. He's already gone over this reception total four times this season and with Chase's targets now up for grabs there should be even more opportunity for Hurst to put up numbers.
