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The Week 4 NFL schedule kicks off with a mouthwatering AFC matchup between the Miami Dolphins (3-0) and Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) on Thursday Night Football. Cincinnati bounced back from consecutive losses to open the season by comfortably beating the New York Jets, 27-12. The Bengals may have been experiencing a Super Bowl hangover early in the season, but they'll face their stiffest test to date when they welcome the undefeated Dolphins to Paul Brown Stadium. The Dolphins have reeled off three straight victories, which includes an impressive 21-19 win over the Bills last week. 

Kickoff from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Bengals vs. Dolphins odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 48.5. Before making any Dolphins vs. Bengals picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Dolphins vs. Bengals and just locked in its picks and TNF predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Dolphins vs. Bengals:

  • Bengals vs. Dolphins spread: Cincinnati -3.5
  • Bengals vs. Dolphins over/under: 48.5 points 
  • Bengals vs. Dolphins money line: Dolphins +162, Bengals -195
  • MIA: Dolphins are 4-0 against the spread in their last four September games 
  • CIN: Bengals have covered seven straight games against teams with winning records 
  • Bengals vs. Dolphins picks: See picks here
Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins

Why the Bengals can cover

Quarterback Joe Burrow will face the Dolphins for the first time in his career. In two career games against AFC East foes, Burrow has been steady, completing 44 of 70 passes (62.9 percent) for 534 yards, six touchdowns and one interception for a 108.9 rating. After two mediocre efforts in the first two weeks, Burrow was sharp in Sunday's win over the New York Jets. He completed 23 of 36 passes (63.9 percent) for 275 yards and three scores for a rating of 114.9.

Defensively, end Trey Hendrickson will be looking for his second big game in a row. Against the Jets, he registered his first 2.5 sacks of the season and forced a career-high two fumbles. He has nine tackles on the year, including six solo, with one tackle for loss. In 64 games over six seasons with the New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals, Hendrickson has 108 tackles, including 74 solo, with 36.5 sacks, eight forced fumbles and three pass breakups.

Why the Dolphins can cover

The Dolphins are off to a blistering start this season, beating the Patriots, Ravens and Bills. A major reason why the Dolphins are off to a 3-0 start is the play of their wide receivers. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle enter Thursday Night Football ranked second and third in the NFL in receiving yards, and both have caught multiple touchdown passes. Waddle was the main playmaker for the Dolphins against Buffalo, securing four receptions for 102 yards. Hill had a field day the week prior, catching 11 passes for 190 yards and two scores in Miami's win over Baltimore.

Miami's speed on the outside also opens up the ground game, especially in the red zone. Last week against the Bills, running back Chase Edmonds scored two rushing touchdowns in the victory. Plus, the Dolphins are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.

How to make Dolphins vs. Bengals picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under the point total, calling for 48 points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's TNF picks at SportsLine

So who wins Dolphins vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Bengals spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,000 on its NFL picks since 2017, and find out.