If you've made it this far in your NFL survivor pool this season, you've done something right in this unpredictable season. But now it's getting really tough. It's time to gain an edge for the home stretch.

No one knows the NFL like SportsLine expert Mike Tierney. A national sportswriter whose work has appeared in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, he has reported from seven Super Bowls. He has his finger on the pulse of the league.

Tierney excels against the spread and straight-up. Last season, he went 166-88-2 in straight-up NFL office pool picks, beating the vast majority of experts on NFLPickWatch.com. This season, he's on pace to do the same.

With Week 12 on the horizon, Tierney has studied the matchups and locked in his NFL survivor pool pick. And he's sharing it over at SportsLine.

Last week, 50 percent of people in Survivor leagues took the Chiefs. It didn't work, as Kansas City was shocked 12-9 by the Giants in overtime. Tierney saw it as a trap game, and instead went with the Saints. In New Orleans, Drew Brees completed the 30th fourth-quarter comeback of his illustrious career in a 34-31 overtime win.

This week, there are some big favorites, including the Patriots with a huge 16.5-point spread against the Dolphins. But Tierney has already taken New England. At this late stage, who hasn't?

It might be a surprise to know he's shying away from going with the Steelers, who are huge favorites over the struggling Packers. They are 8-2, but five of those wins were by six points, including three-point wins over the likes of the Colts and Browns. And the Steelers lost to the Bears, a team Green Bay beat just two games ago.

For a similar reason, he's also hesitant to take the Chiefs, who at times have looked like Super Bowl contenders (wins over the Patriots and Eagles) and other times like basement-dwellers (losses to the Texans, Raiders, and Giants).

Tierney was also considering the Bengals as nine-point favorites over the rival Browns. But he has had his Week 12 pick pegged for a while.

He knows there's an alarming statistic that ultimately leads to this team surviving Week 12. And he's sharing what it is, and who to back, over at SportsLine. 

So what is Mike Tierney's survivor pool play of the week? Visit SportsLine now to see which team will survive and advance, all from the man who went 166-88-2 in straight-up office pool picks last season, and find out.