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There are no sure bets in the NFL, as we saw once again last week in New Orleans. The Saints, who came in 7-1 and looking invincible, were outclassed from the opening kickoff in a 26-9 beatdown by Atlanta, which came in 1-7. Survivor pool players who avoided the Saints with their NFL knockout picks are counting their blessings. But the NFL Week 11 schedule is no cupcake either, with very few obvious knockout pool or NFL survivor picks. Fortunately, the SportsLine Projection Model, which has simulated the entire season 10,000 times, has generated the optimal Week 11 NFL picks and survivor strategy.

This model has ranked in the Top 10 in straight-up picks on NFLPickWatch for three years running. Additionally, it beat over 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season.

For NFL Week 11, we can tell you the model is not going with the heavily favored 49ers, even though they're at home facing 3-6-1 Arizona. This is a classic sandwich game for San Francisco, which is vying for the NFC's top seed.

The 49ers played their NFC West arch-rivals, the Seahawks, on Monday night and have a Week 12 matchup with the 8-2 Packers on deck. Having already beaten Arizona, the 49ers could overlook the Cardinals and their rookie head coach-quarterback combination. Plus, the first meeting was not a blowout, as San Francisco held on for a three-point win at Arizona in Week 9.

There's another team winning just as often as the 49ers that the model loves for your NFL knockout picks this week. Picking this team also sets you up for the rest of the season. You need to see who it is before locking in any NFL football picks. 

So which team is a must-back in your Week 11 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 11, all from the proven computer model that's ranked in the top 11 on straight-up picks three years running.