The Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans will put a bow on Week 6 in the NFL when these two AFC squads square up for "Monday Night Football" down in Nashville. Both of these teams are coming off road wins in Week 5 with the Bills taking down the Chiefs at Arrowhead and the Titans heading down to Jacksonville to take down the Jaguars. They'll be looking to continue those winning ways when they go toe-to-toe at Nissan Stadium.
So far this season, the Bills (4-1) and Titans (3-2) have records that also mirror their records against the spread and that area will be our main focus here. We'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we'll also take a look at a number of player props and hand in our picks for how we see this prime-time matchup unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
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This spread opened at Titans -4.5 but was quick to jump up the full point to Titans -5.5 by Monday. That number held throughout the bulk of the week but did tick up to Titans -6 for e time on Sunday.
The pick: Bills -5.5. By almost any measure you want to look at, the Bills have proven that they are the top dog in the AFC. Entering Week 6, they are the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 1 scoring defense in the league. They've also been favorable to bettors, owning a 4-1 ATS record heading into Week 6, and are covering the spread by more than 15 points per game. Buffalo is fresh off a primetime win against the Chiefs where they limited that high-powered offense to 20 points and there should be a lot of confidence that this level of dominance continues on the road against the Titans.
Key trend: Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
The total opened at 54.5 and has jockeyed around that number throughout the week, moving as low as 53.5 and moving back up to 54.5 before settling back at 53.5 on Sunday afternoon.
The pick: Under 53.5. The Titans are still working their wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones back into the fold after each have been dealing with injuries for the bulk of the season. Brown was even demoted to questionable for this matchup due to an illness, so his status is in question. While Derrick Henry has shown us he's matchup proof, the Bills are the No. 1 ranked run defense, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. Even if they can slow him down a touch, that drastically limits Tennessee's scoring potential. Of course, Buffalo has already shown us they can hang 40 on a given week, but the lean here is towards the under.
Key trend: Under is 4-1 in Bills last five games as a favorite.
Josh Allen props
- Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +170, Under -210)
- Passing yards: 292.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 31.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Rushing attempts: 6.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Passing attempts: 38.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
- Longest pass completion: 38.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Completions: 25.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +110, Under -140)
Josh Allen has gone over this rushing yards number in four of his five games played this season, including a 59-yard rushing performance last week in Kansas City. The Titans also just allowed Trevor Lawrence to rush for 27 yards and a touchdown last week, so this would be a strong lean for this matchup.
Ryan Tannehill props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
- Passing yards: 236.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 15.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Passing attempts: 33.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Longest pass completion: 34.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Completions: 21.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
Tannehill has gone over his passing yards total just twice this season and is facing a Bills defense that ranks No. 1 in the league in DVOA, so there is a solid lean towards the Under there. It is worth noting, however, that Tannehill will likely have his full complement of receiving weapons. The prop that I favor most with Tannehill is the Under on his passing touchdowns at 1.5. He's crossed over that number just once this season and Tennessee will likely continue to look to Derrick Henry when they get into the red zone.
Player props to consider
Zack Moss total rushing attempts: Over 10.5 (-135). Moss has gone over this number in three straight games and is going against a Tennessee run defense that ranks 27th in the NFL in DVOA.
Emmanuel Sanders longest reception: Over 22.5 (-110). As evidenced from his 35-yard touchdown last week, Josh Allen likes to look at Sanders down the field. The veteran receiver is coming into Week 6 with an ADOT of 16 and has seen nine targets of 20-plus yards down the field this season. He's caught five of them for a total of 159 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Tennessee is allowing 8.4 yards per pass this season, ranking fifth-worst in the NFL.
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