Two of the AFC's top quarterbacks will square off when the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs in a special Monday NFL game. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have both led their teams to 4-1 records. Allen is in new territory among the best quarterbacks in the game. Entering Week 6, he led the AFC with 1,589 passing yards and 14 TD passes. Buffalo is the only team in the AFC East with a winning percentage above .500. The Bills are aiming to become the first team to overtake New England for the division title since 2008 and are hoping to win the AFC East for the first time since 1995. 

Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds from William Hill, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 56. Before making any Bills vs. Chiefs picks, be sure to see the latest NFL predictions for Monday from SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein, given his epic run picking Kansas City games.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Last year, he went 58-39 on his against-the-spread NFL picks, giving his followers a profit of more than $1,500.

He also has a sharp eye for the Chiefs' tendencies, going an eye-popping 9-1 in his last 10 spread picks for or against Kansas City. Last week, when the Chiefs laid 13 at home to the Raiders, Hartstein was all over Las Vegas. The result? Raiders 40, K.C. 32. Anyone who has consistently followed Hartstein is way up.

Now, he has dialed in on Chiefs vs. Bills from every angle and released a confident against-the-spread pick. You can only see it here. Here are the NFL odds and betting trends for Bills vs. Chiefs:

  • Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -5.5
  • Bills vs. Chiefs over-under: 56 points
  • Bills vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -240, Buffalo +200
  • KC: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads all rookies with 344 rushing yards. 
  • BUF: WR Stefon Diggs is second in the NFL with 509 receiving yards. 

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 9-2-1 in its last 12 games against AFC teams. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce have combined for 769 receiving yards and eight total TDs. The Chiefs have also added a new dimension to the offense with versatile rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. So far, he has 80-plus scrimmage yards in four of five games. Mahomes has also been a rushing threat at key times, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt while scoring twice.

In the Chiefs vs. Bills all-time series, the road team is 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings, and head coach Andy Reid is seeking his sixth win in nine games versus Buffalo. Kansas City has won three of the past four meetings and has an all-time record of 24-20-1 against the Bills.

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven games following an ATS loss. Allen is one of two AFC quarterbacks, along with Mahomes, who has two-plus TD passes in all of his five games so far. He has a 100-plus quarterback rating in four of his outings and is fourth in the NFL with a 113.0 rating. Under Allen's guidance, Buffalo leads the AFC with 1,540 passing yards and is second in the conference in total offense at 401.8 yards per game. Allen has rushed for three TDs while throwing just three interceptions. 

The offseason acquisition of Stefon Diggs has certainly boosted Allen's production. Buffalo's new No. 1 wide receiver ranks second in the NFL with 509 receiving yards. Diggs led the team with 10 catches for 106 yards in Week 5, his fifth-career game with 10-plus catches and 100-plus receiving yards.

How to make Bills vs. Chiefs picks

Now, Hartstein has broken down Chiefs vs. Bills from every angle. We can tell you he's leaning over on the total, but his much stronger play is on the spread. He's found a critical x-factor that makes one side of the spread hit hard on Monday. He's only sharing it at SportsLine

Who wins Chiefs vs. Bills? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Chiefs spread you should jump on Monday, all from the K.C. expert who has gone 9-1 in his last 10 picks involving the Chiefs, and find out.