Bills vs. Dolphins odds: 2019 NFL picks, Week 11 predictions from advanced computer model

Get ready for an AFC East battle as the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills square off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. Miami is 2-7 overall and 1-4 at home, while Buffalo is 6-3 overall and 3-1 on the road. Miami has covered the spread in each of its last five games, while Buffalo enters Sunday's contest having beaten Miami in four of its last five meetings. Buffalo is favored by 6.5 points in the latest Dolphins vs. Bills odds, while the Over-Under is set at 40.5. Before entering any Bills vs. Dolphins picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 11 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 29-18 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 91-61 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season, Last season, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has simulated Dolphins vs. Bills 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

The Dolphins were able to grind out their second consecutive victory last week, beating the Colts by a final score of 16-12. Miami's defense was instrumental in its victory over Indianapolis, recording three interceptions against Brian Hoyer. Wide receiver DeVante Parker also had a strong showing against Indianapolis, hauling in five receptions for 69 yards. In Miami's 31-21 loss against Buffalo earlier this season, Parker recorded five receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown. The 2015 first-rounder has scored a touchdown in four of his last six outings.

Buffalo, meanwhile, suffered a grim 19-16 defeat to the Cleveland Browns in its last outing. Quarterback Josh Allen set a new career high in passing yardage (266) against the Browns, while also scoring two touchdowns on the ground. Despite Allen's two rushing scores, the Bills' rushing attack was ineffective throughout the day against Cleveland, as Devin Singletary and Frank Gore combined for just 54 rushing yards. However, Buffalo has had success against its AFC East opponents recently. In fact, the Bills are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against their AFC East division rivals. 

A couple defensive stats to keep in mind before Sunday's AFC East battle: The Dolphins are third worst in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, giving up 146.1 on average. To make matters even worse for Miami, Buffalo comes into the matchup boasting the second fewest passing touchdowns allowed in the league at seven. 

So who wins Bills vs. Dolphins? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Bills vs. Dolphins spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.

Our Latest Stories