The Buffalo Bills welcome the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs on Saturday. The Bills (14-3) advanced with a home win over the Indianapolis Colts last week, while the Ravens (12-5) picked up a road win over the Tennessee Titans. Both teams are led by top-shelf quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson for Baltimore and Josh Allen for Buffalo.
Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists Buffalo as a 2.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 50 in the latest Bills vs. Ravens odds. Before making any Ravens vs. Bills picks, see the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
- Ravens vs. Bills spread: Bills -2.5
- Ravens vs. Bills over-under: 50 points
- Ravens vs. Bills money line: Bills -140, Ravens +120
- BAL: Ravens are 11-6 against the spread this season
- BUF: Over has hit in 11 Bills games
Why the Ravens can cover
The Ravens played at an extremely high level defensively in the Wild Card round. Baltimore allowed the fewest total yards (209) of any team last week and, in the process, the Ravens held Derrick Henry and the explosive Titans running game to just 51 rushing yards.
The task is different against Buffalo's air attack, but the Ravens finished second in scoring defense during the regular season, giving up 18.9 points per game, which included top-seven marks in total defense and pass defense. Baltimore can also keep the ball out of Josh Allen's hands, relying on the No. 1 rushing offense in the league in both total yardage and yards per carry.
Why the Bills can cover
Buffalo improved over the course of the full season, and the team's numbers were impressive on both sides of the ball. Offensively, the Bills were No. 2 in the league in yardage (396.4 yards per game) and scoring (31.3 points per game). Buffalo also finished third in pass offense, generating 288.8 yards per game.
The Bills excelled at keeping drives alive by converting a league-leading 49.7 percent of their third downs.
Defensively, the Bills were above-average in both total defense (352.8 yards allowed per game) and passing defense (232.9). Buffalo was opportunistic, generating 15 interceptions, and the Bills were able to limit opponents to just a 39.8 percent conversion rate on third down.
How to make Bills vs. Ravens picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with the simulations showing the teams combining for 49 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only see which side to back here.
So who wins Ravens vs. Bills in the 2021 NFL Playoffs? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Ravens vs. Bills spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model on a 120-78 roll, and find out.