Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will put his undefeated record against the Broncos on the line when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football game at Arrowhead Stadium. The 28-year-old Mahomes is 11-0 all-time against Denver and is one of just four quarterbacks in NFL history with an 11-0 or better record against a single team all-time. With a win on Thursday Night Football, he would join Otto Graham, who went 12-0 against the Cardinals, for the most wins without a loss by a quarterback against a single team since 1950. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is questionable with an ankle injury.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite in the latest Broncos vs. Chiefs odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 47. Before you make any Chiefs vs. Broncos picks or Thursday Night Football predictions, you need to see what proven SportsLine expert Matt Severance has to say, given his mastery of picks involving Denver.

Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. In Major League Baseball, since the start of the 2021 season, Matt is up $2,840 for $100 bettors. Over the past two NBA seasons, Matt has returned $3,504. And over the past three college basketball seasons, Matt is up $2,704.

Moreover, Severance has a read on the pulse of the Broncos. He is 16-5 on his last 21 NFL picks in games involving Denver. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Severance has locked in on Chiefs vs. Broncos from every angle and just locked in his picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Broncos vs. Chiefs: 

  • Broncos vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -10.5
  • Broncos vs. Chiefs over/under: 47 points
  • Broncos vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -550, Denver +400
  • KC: Chiefs rank seventh in the NFL in total offense (381.0 yards per game)
  • DEN: QB Russell Wilson is fourth in the league in passer rating (106.1)
  • Broncos vs. Chiefs picks: See picks at SportsLine 

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City faces a Denver defense that has been gashed by the run all season. The Broncos allow 187.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks last in the league and is more than 33 more than the next worst rush defense, the Bengals (154.0). Last Sunday, Denver was torched for 234 rushing yards by the Jets.

That bodes well for Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco. The 5-foot-10 second-year back has become a workhorse runner for Kansas City, averaging 17.0 carries for 77.3 yards over the last three weeks. In 19 previous regular season games for the Chiefs, Pacheco had averaged 10.0 carries for 48.6 yards per game. See which team to back here.

Why the Broncos can cover

Denver faces a Kansas City offense that has not played up to its level of last season's unit. Last year, the Chiefs led the league in scoring offense (29.2 points per game), total offense (413.6 yards per game) and passing offense (297.8). This year, they rank ninth in scoring offense (25.6) and seventh in both total offense (381.0) and passing offense (258.0).

In addition, the Broncos could benefit from the weather conditions on Thursday. The weather forecast for the game is predicting wind gusts up to 25 miles per hour. That could dramatically limit Kansas City's passing attack and make kicking field goals an adventure. See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. Broncos picks

Severance has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he's leaning Over the point total, he has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's sharing what it is, and which side to back, only at SportsLine.

Who wins Chiefs vs. Broncos on Thursday Night Football, and which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Broncos spread hits hard, all from the expert who is on an impressive 16-5 run on picks involving Denver, and find out.