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The Denver Broncos will take on the Atlanta Falcons at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta is 2-6 overall and 0-4 at home, while the Broncos are 3-4 overall and 2-1 on the road. The Broncos have won three of their past four games. The Falcons have won two of their past three. 

Atlanta is favored by four points in the latest Falcons vs. Broncos odds from William Hill Sportsbook. The over-under for total points expected is set at 50. Before entering any Broncos vs. Falcons picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,600 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It's off to a strong 15-8 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model also enters Week 9 on an incredible 111-73 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Falcons vs. Broncos. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for Broncos vs. Falcons:

  • Falcons vs. Broncos spread: Falcons -4
  • Falcons vs. Broncos over-under: 50 points
  • Falcons vs. Broncos money line: Atlanta -215, Denver +185

Why the Falcons can cover

The Falcons beat the Carolina Panthers 25-17 last Thursday. Julio Jones had seven receptions for 137 yards. He now has 35 games with 125-plus receiving yards, tied for the second most in NFL history. He is aiming for his fourth game in row with seven receptions and 90 yards. Todd Gurley had a rushing TD last week. He has a rushing TD in five of his past six games and has scored in four consecutive home games. 

Matt Ryan has 300 yards in five of his past seven games at home. He has 333 TD passes and can surpass Tom Brady (334) for the fifth most in his first 13 seasons. Deion Jones had six tackles and a sack last week and has registered a sack in his past two games. The Falcons have won three of the last meetings with the Broncos. Calvin Ridley is questionable with a foot injury. 

Why the Broncos can cover

Denver snuck past the Los Angeles Chargers for the 31-30 win. Denver overcome a 24-10 third quarter deficit. Phillip Lindsay ripped off a 55-yard TD run. Lindsay finished with 83 rushing yards and has rushed for 75 yards in three consecutive games. Lindsay injured his foot in the win and is listed as questionable for Week 9. Despite the injury concerns, both he and Tim Patrick (questionable, hamstring) are expected to play. Patrick has reached 100 yards in his past two road games. 

Drew Lock had his best game of the season vs. the Chargers. He passed for 248 yards and a season-high three TDs vs. one INT for a 94.4 rating. The Falcons are worst in the league in passing touchdowns allowed, with 20 on the season. Jerry Jeudy had four catches for a career-high 73 yards in Week 8. He ranks third among AFC rookies with 359 receiving yards. 

How to make Broncos vs. Falcons picks

SportsLine's model has simulated Falcons vs. Broncos 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning over on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Falcons vs. Broncos? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Broncos vs. Falcons spread to jump on Sunday, all from the model that enters Week 9 of the NFL season on an incredible 111-73 roll.