Browns vs. Bills odds: NFL preseason Week 2 picks from proven expert who was undefeated in the postseason

The Bills and the Browns hook up in Cleveland on Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET in each team's second 2018 NFL preseason game. The Browns are three-point home favorites, down a half-point from where the line opened. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas oddsmakers think will be scored, is 42.5, up 2.5 from the opener. The Browns are -150 on the money line (bet $150 to win $100), while the Bills are +130 (bet $100 to win $130). Before you lock in any Bills vs. Browns picks, you need to see what SportsLine's Josh Nagel has to say. The Nevada-based expert with 20 years of experience hit 70 percent of his NFL spread picks last season, and was undefeated in the postseason at 7-0. Anyone who followed him scored big.

It wasn't a fluke, either. Two weeks ago, Nagel led his followers to a winner on the Hall of Fame Game when he advised fading the Ravens and instead taking the points with the Bears. The result: Chicago nearly won outright, and anyone who followed him, and faded the public, cashed easily. Now, he has locked in Bills vs. Browns picks that you can only see over at SportsLine.

Nagel knows Cleveland drafted Baker Mayfield with the top overall pick and Buffalo selected Josh Allen at No. 7. Both rookie quarterbacks had promising debuts.

Mayfield, the brash Heisman winner from Oklahoma, has been the flashpoint of attention in the clubhouse and on "Hard Knocks." He didn't disappoint in his NFL debut, throwing for 212 yards and two touchdowns in a 20-10 win over the Giants.

Mayfield will likely open the season as the backup to veteran Tyrod Taylor. But he and other young prospects, such as cornerback Denzel Ward, the No. 4 overall pick, will get a chance to gain more valuable experience Friday.

But just because the Browns looked impressive against the Giants doesn't mean they'll cover a three-point spread in the preseason. The Bills will be highly motivated, looking to avoid a step back after sneaking into the playoffs as one of the AFC Wild Cards in 2017.

Buffalo's offense will see a considerable overhaul after Taylor was traded away in the off-season and Josh Allen was selected No. 7 overall. Buffalo also has A.J. McCarron and Nathan Peterman, both players with starting experience, on the roster, which could pay dividends in a preseason setting where lack of depth is often exposed. They were leading in the third quarter last week against the Panthers before falling, 28-23. 

And much of Buffalo's third-ranked total defense from 2017 returns this season as well, so the Bills could be a pesky opponents in the preseason and regular season alike. 

We can tell you Nagel is leaning over on Friday, but his much stronger play is on the spread. He knows a critical x-factor will lead to one side of the spread hitting hard. He's sharing what it is, and who to back, only at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills-Browns? And what critical x-factor will determine the outcome? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on Friday, all from an expert who hit on 70 percent of his NFL spread picks last year and was undefeated in the postseason

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