The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will square off against the upstart Cleveland Browns on Sunday in an AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs (14-2) cruised through the regular season behind former league MVP Patrick Mahomes and his stellar supporting cast. They had the week off after resting their starters in a loss to the Chargers to snap a 10-game win streak. The Browns (12-5) surprised the Steelers, forcing five turnovers in a 48-37 victory, their first in the playoffs since the 1994 season.
Kickoff in this 2021 NFL Playoff game is set for 3:05 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists Kansas City as a 10-point favorite in the latest Browns vs. Chiefs odds, with the over-under for total points scored set at 57. Before making any Chiefs vs. Browns picks, see the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
- Browns vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -10
- Browns vs. Chiefs over-under: 57
- Browns vs. Chiefs money line: Cleveland +400, Kansas City -500
- CLE: QB Baker Mayfield has thrown for at least 250 yards in six of the past seven games
- KC: TE Travis Kelce has at least seven receptions in eight straight games
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City is 10-4 against the spread against teams with a winning record, and Mahomes and Co. score nearly 30 points per game. He leads the league's top offense and faces a defense that ranks 22nd against the pass. The 2018 MVP was second in the league in passing yards (4,740) and fourth in TDs (38), and he has talent everywhere around him. All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce was second in the league with 1,416 yards and scored 11 times.
Mahomes also has a strong rapport with speedy wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who has scored 15 TDs and averages 14.7 yards per catch. The starters allow just 22.6 points per game (10th in NFL), and the Chiefs have 22 takeaways. Safety Tyrann Mathieu has six of the team's 16 interceptions and the Browns have coughed it up 17 times.
Why the Browns can cover
The Chiefs haven't won by more than six points since Week 8, and the Browns should be able to exploit a leaky run defense. Cleveland has averaged 160.2 yards on the ground in 14 games with Nick Chubb active this season, and the Chiefs rank 22nd against the run (122.1), worst among playoff teams. Chubb had 145 total yards against Pittsburgh and averaged 5.6 yards per carry in the regular season. Kareem Hunt ran for 48 yards on just eight carries last week.
The underdog is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven meetings between the teams, and quarterback Baker Mayfield has bounced back from his sophomore slump. He threw for 263 yards and three TDs against Pittsburgh after throwing for 3,563 yards and 26 TDs, with just eight interceptions, during the regular season.
How to make Browns vs. Chiefs picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with the simulations showing the teams combining for 54 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see which side to back here.
So who wins Chiefs vs. Browns in the 2021 NFL Playoffs? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Chiefs vs. Browns spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 120-78 roll, and find out.