The Cleveland Browns have faced many challenges this season, and now they'll try to conquer another one when they face the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC Divisional Playoff game on Sunday. The coronavirus pandemic has hit the Browns (12-5) especially hard, wiping out their receiving corps before a loss to the Jets and forcing them to play without head coach Kevin Stefanski and several key players last week. Still, they shocked the Steelers in the first round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs.
Kickoff is set for 3:05 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists Kansas City as a 9.5-point favorite in the latest Browns vs. Chiefs odds after the spread moved as high as 10, while the over-under for total points scored is 57. Before making any Chiefs vs. Browns picks, see the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
- Browns vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -9.5
- Browns vs. Chiefs over-under: 57
- Browns vs. Chiefs money line: Cleveland +400, Kansas City -500
- CLE: QB Baker Mayfield has thrown for at least 250 yards in six of the past seven games
- KC: TE Travis Kelce has at least seven receptions in eight straight games
Why the Chiefs can cover
Double-digit favorites are 6-1 against the spread since 2011 in the Divisional Round, and the Chiefs can strike quickly. Mahomes leads the NFL with 316 passing yards per game and 12 TD passes on throws more than 20 yards downfield. Wideout Tyreek Hill (1,276 yards, 15 TDs) is one of several big-play options, along with tight end Travis Kelce. The All-Pro is second in the league in both receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,416), with 11 TDs.
The Chiefs are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home playoff games, and the defense has its share of playmakers. Safety Tyrann Mathieu has six interceptions, while safety Daniel Sorensen has three, and both have returned one for a TD.
Why the Browns can cover
The Chiefs are 1-7 against the spread since Week 9 and they could have trouble against Cleveland's rushing attack. The Browns boast one of the NFL's top offensive lines, which paves the way for the league's No. 3 rushing attack (148.4 yards per game). The Chiefs have the worst run defense among playoff teams, ranking 21st (122.1). Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 124 yards last week after they teamed up for 1,908 and 18 touchdowns during the regular season.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield also can put up points for the Browns, who have scored more than 40 against three playoff teams in the past six games. He threw for 263 yards and three TDs against Pittsburgh after throwing for more than 3,500 yards and 26 TDs during the season.
How to make Browns vs. Chiefs picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with the simulations showing the teams combining for 52 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see which side to back here.
So who wins Chiefs vs. Browns in the 2021 NFL Playoffs? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Chiefs vs. Browns spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 120-78 roll, and find out.