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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had high expectations when they signed Tom Brady, and the veteran quarterback may have even exceeded them as the team heads to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football. Brady has led the Bucs (3-1) to three straight wins after a rocky opener, and Tampa Bay's defense has been doing its part. The Bears (3-1) lost their first game with Nick Foles as the starting quarterback in Week 4, but they also have a top-flight defense that can keep them in any game.

Kickoff from Chicago is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay is a field-goal favorite in the latest Buccaneers vs. Bears odds from William Hill, while the over-under is 44.5. Before locking in any Bears vs. Buccaneers picks, make sure you see the latest Thursday Night Football predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It's off to a strong 7-4 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 5 on an incredible 103-69 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucs vs. Bears. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds from William Hill and trends for Bears vs. Bucs:

  • Buccaneers vs. Bears spread: Tampa Bay -3
  • Buccaneers vs. Bears over-under: 44.5 points
  • Buccaneers vs. Bears money line: Tampa Bay -170, Chicago +150
  • TB: The Buccaneers are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games as a road favorite
  • CHI: The Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine contests following a straight-up loss

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Brady won six Super Bowls despite often playing with limited options in New England, but he has talent all over the field in Tampa Bay, which is 4-1 against the spread in its last five road games. Receiver Mike Evans has scored in five straight games and has 17 catches for 230 yards this season. Scotty Miller has stepped up with Pro Bowl wideout Chris Godwin out with a hamstring injury, and the slot man has 15 catches for a team-high 250 yards and a score. 

The Bucs are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, and Brady threw TD passes to five receivers in a 38-31 win against the Chargers in Week 4.

The Bucs' defense ranks fourth in the NFL in yards allowed (312 yards per game), and Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul both have three sacks.

Why the Bears can cover

Foles, who completed 26-of-42 attempts for 249 yards with a touchdown and an interception on Sunday, has performed well against Tampa Bay during his career. The 31-year-old has faced the Buccaneers four times, throwing for 1,104 yards with six passing TDs and a pair of rushing scores. Foles will be focusing on Allen Robinson II, who leads the Bears with 25 catches and 331 receiving yards. 

The 27-year-old Robinson was targeted 10 times on Sunday and finished with seven receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown, marking the second straight game in which he reached triple-digits in yards and found the end zone. Robinson has produced for the Bears on Thursday Night Football, recording 23 catches for 333 yards and two scores in four appearances. Tight end Jimmy Graham also enjoys the big stage, as he has hauled in seven TD passes in 10 Thursday Night Football games.

How to make Buccaneers vs. Bears picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total. In fact, it says both starting quarterbacks will be held under 250 passing yards. It also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Bears vs. Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Buccaneers vs. Bears spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,300 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.