The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a great chance to start 2-0 at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET against the Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers kicked the 2021 NFL season off with a dramatic win against the Dallas Cowboys, while the Falcons are looking for answers after a 32-6 loss to Philadelphia. These two NFC South rivals are very familiar with each other and the Falcons hold the advantage in recent years, winning six of their last nine matchups against Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is a 12.5-point favorite in the latest Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 51.5. Going back to 2018, the Falcons have been double-digit underdogs four times, but are 2-2 outright and 3-1 against the spread. Since the start of last season, Tampa Bay is 5-2 overall but 3-4 ATS as a home favorite. Before entering any Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.
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- Buccaneers vs. Falcons spread: Buccaneers -12.5
- Buccaneers vs. Falcons over-under: 51.5 points
What you need to know about the Buccaneers
In seven career games against Atlanta, Tom Brady has completed 67 percent of his passes and thrown 17 touchdowns against just two interceptions. Last week, Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts completed 77 percent of his passes against Atlanta with three touchdowns. Brady threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns last week in Tampa Bay's victory over Dallas, and he should be able to repeat that productivity with ease on Sunday afternoon.
Atlanta was only able to muster 136 passing yards last week, despite having wide receiver Calvin Ridley and top draft pick Kyle Pitts combining for 18 targets. The Buccaneers didn't play Dallas' vaunted wide receiver corps very aggressively, but they have far less to worry about from Atlanta's pass-catchers this week. The Falcons actually came away with a decent rushing total against Philly, but Tampa's run defense was its biggest strength all through last season and held Ezekiel Elliott to just 33 yards last week.
What you need to know about the Falcons
Matt Ryan passed for only 164 yards on 35 attempts in the loss to the Eagles. He was sacked three times. He has 12 TD passes and two INTs in his last six starts vs. Tampa Bay. Ryan has thrown for two-plus TD passes and no INTs in his last two games vs. the Buccaneers.
Pitts caught four passes for 31 yards in his NFL debut last week. Ridley has a TD catch in three of his last four games vs. Tampa Bay. Russell Gage had nine catches for 91 yards and TD in his last matchup with the Buccaneers.
How to make Buccaneers vs. Falcons picks
The model has simulated Buccaneers vs. Falcons 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning over on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Buccaneers vs. Falcons? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.