The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will look for a repeat performance of their Week 6 matchup when they take on the Green Bay Packers in Sunday's 2021 NFC Championship Game. In that 38-10 win by the Buccaneers (13-5), the Packers (14-3) were held to just 94 rushing yards. Green Bay's Aaron Jones carried just 10 times for 15 yards, and his longest run of the day was just seven yards. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed just 16 of 35 passes for just 160 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. He was sacked four times in his worst performance of the year.
Green Bay is a three-point favorite in the latest Buccaneers vs. Packers odds from William Hill Sportsbook after the spread moved as high as 3.5, while the over-under is 53. Before making any Packers vs. Buccaneers picks, see the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters Championship Weekend in the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucs vs. Packers in the NFC Championship Game 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are the latest NFL odds and trends for Packers vs. Bucs:
- Buccaneers vs. Packers spread: Green Bay -3
- Buccaneers vs. Packers over-under: 53 points
- Buccaneers vs. Packers money line: Green Bay -170, Tampa Bay +150
- GB: Packers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six home playoff games
- TB: Bucs are 4-1 against the spread in their last five playoff contests as underdogs
Why the Packers can cover
Aaron Rodgers extended his streak of consecutive postseason games with multiple touchdown passes to eight when he threw a pair against the Rams, tying the NFL record set from 2011 to 2014 by Joe Flacco. The 37-year-old has at least one scoring toss in 15 straight playoff contests, the fourth-longest such streak in league history behind Brett Favre (20), Tom Brady (18) and Drew Brees (18). He ranks fourth on the all-time list with 42 career postseason TD passes and needs three to pass Favre (44) and tie Joe Montana for second place behind Tom Brady (77).
Aaron Jones recorded 113 scrimmage yards in the victory over Los Angeles while also rushing for a touchdown. The 26-year-old from UTEP has recorded five TDs in three career playoff games. Jones has rushed for a score in both of his previous career matchups against Tampa Bay, including the Packers' 38-10 road loss in Week 6 this season.
Why the Buccaneers can cover
Linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul has always come up big during the postseason and will try to continue that trend against the Packers. Pierre-Paul has five tackles for loss and six pass breakups in six career postseason games. In his last matchup against Green Bay, he had 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble.
During the regular season, Pierre-Paul had 55 tackles with 9.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss.
Cornerback Jamel Dean did what few have been able to do when he faced Aaron Rodgers the first time this season. In the Week 6 matchup, he had a 32-yard pick six. Dean finished the regular season seventh on the team in tackles with 62, including 51 solo. In the 2021 NFL Playoffs, Dean has 10 tackles, including nine solo, with one pass breakup.
How to make Buccaneers vs. Packers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with the teams projected for 52 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes over half the time. You can only see which side to back here.
So who wins Packers vs. Buccaneers in the 2021 NFL Playoffs? And which side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Packers vs. Buccaneers spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 120-78 roll, and find out.