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Tom Brady will try to extend his dominance over the Rams when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Los Angeles in a key Monday Night Football matchup at Raymond James Stadium. The 43-year-old Brady is 5-1 in his career against the Rams and has won five straight meetings, including two Super Bowl wins (following the 2001 and 2018 seasons). He hasn't lost to the Rams since Nov. 18, 2001. The average margin of victory during Brady's personal five-game streak is 17.0 points.

On Monday Night Football, Brady and the Buccaneers (7-3) will face a 6-3 Rams team looking to join Seattle atop the NFC West standings. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Buccaneers vs. Rams odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the Over-Under for total points scored is 48. Before you make any Rams vs. Buccaneers picks, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 18-9 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 11 on an incredible 114-74 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has zeroed in on Buccaneers vs. Rams and locked in another confident against-the-spread pick. You can see it only at SportsLine. Now, here are several NFL odds and trends for Rams vs. Buccaneers:

  • Buccaneers vs. Rams spread: Tampa Bay -4.5
  • Buccaneers vs. Rams Over-Under: 48 points
  • Buccaneers vs. Rams money line: Tampa Bay -215, Los Angeles +185
  • TB: Leads the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (76.6)
  • LAR: DT Aaron Donald ranks second in the league in sacks (nine)

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Tampa Bay is coming off its best offensive performance of the season. Last week at Carolina, the Bucs set season-highs in points scored (46), total yards (544), first downs (30) and time of possession (36:05).

Ronald Jones rushed for 192 yards, including a 98-yard touchdown, and Tom Brady threw for 341 yards and three scores, rushing for a fourth, in the win. 

In addition, tight end Rob Gronkowski has regained his form as a favored red zone target for Brady. After a slow start, Gronk has a receiving touchdown in four of his past five games. The four scores are tied for the fifth-most by any player, and the most by a tight end, since Week 6.

Why the Rams can cover

Los Angeles has a defense to slow Tampa Bay's dangerous running game. The Rams allow just 96.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks fifth in the league. They also give up just 4.1 yards per carry, which is ninth-best. 

In addition, Los Angeles has a plethora of pass-rushers who can apply pressure. In addition to Defensive Player of the Year candidate Aaron Donald (nine sacks), linebacker Leonard Floyd has seven sacks and is coming off a career-high three-sack game against Seattle. Rookie linebacker Terrell Lewis also is hot coming into Monday night after registering two sacks last week.

How to make Buccaneers vs. Rams picks

Now, the model has broken down Rams vs. Buccaneers from every angle. The model is leaning over 48 points, but its much stronger play is on the spread. In fact, it says one team is covering in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see who to back here.

So who wins Rams vs. Buccaneers on Monday Night Football? And which team covers nearly 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Rams vs. Buccaneers spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,800 on its NFL picks.