The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled to solve the New Orleans Saints, but quarterback Tom Brady and company get a third try on Sunday when the teams square off in an NFC Divisional Round game. The Buccaneers (12-5) have lost five straight to the Saints (13-4) and were outscored 72-26 in two meetings this season. New Orleans has scored at least 28 points in eight of the past nine meetings.

Kickoff is set for 6:40 p.m. ET in the 2021 NFL Playoffs. William Hill Sportsbook lists New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Buccaneers vs. Saints odds, with the over-under for total points scored set at 52.5, up one from the opener. Before making any Saints vs. Buccaneers picks, see the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucs vs. Saints. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are the latest NFL odds and trends for Saints vs. Bucs:

  • Bucs vs. Saints spread: New Orleans -2.5
  • Bucs vs. Saints over-under: 52.5
  • Bucs vs. Saints money line: Tampa Bay +140, New Orleans -160
  • TB: WR Chris Godwin has 15 catches for 296 yards and four TDs in the past three games
  • NO: RB Alvin Kamara has 288 total yards and seven TDs over the past two games

Why the Saints can cover

New Orleans has covered the spread in five straight games against the Bucs and scored at least 28 points in eight of the past nine meetings, winning seven. Brees will face the league's No. 21 pass defense (246.6 yards per game) after completing more than 70 percent of his passes for nearly 3,000 yards this season.

Wide receiver Michael Thomas, who set the NFL record for receptions last season, is finally healthy, while tight end Jared Cook (37 catches, seven TDs) is a tough matchup for any defense. 

The Saints are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games against NFC foes, and Alvin Kamara will help skirt the Bucs' run defense. He has 1,688 total yards with 21 TDs and leads the team in receptions with 83, so he can get behind the run-stoppers. The defense allows the fourth-fewest yards in the league (310.9 per game) and is fifth in scoring (21.1 points). The unit has 18 interceptions, five of which have come against Brady, including one returned for a TD.

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin form one of the best duos in the league and helped quarterback Tom Brady rank third in the league with 4,633 passing yards during the regular season. Evans caught 13 of Brady's 40 TD passes, and the two wideouts combined for 11 catches for 198 yards in the win against Washington last week. 

Brady also has a strong rapport with receiver Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronksowski (seven TDs). Leonard Fournette had 93 rushing yards last week in place of Ronald Jones, who rushed for 978 in 14 games. The Bucs rank sixth in total defense, and the unit is loaded with talent, including second-team All-Pros Devin White (nine sacks) and Lavonte David (three takeaways).

How to make Buccaneers vs. Saints picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under, with the simulations showing the teams combining for 52 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only see which side to back here.

So who wins Saints vs. Buccaneers in the 2021 NFL Playoffs? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Saints vs. Buccaneers spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 120-78 roll, and find out.