Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets odds: Picks from expert who's 36-15 on NFL totals

Week 9 of the NFL starts with an AFC East clash between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.

The Bills are three-point favorites, down a half-point from where the line opened. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 42.5, up a half-point from where it opened.

Before you make any bets on Bills-Jets, you'll want to hear what Mike "Top Dog" Tierney has to say.

In Vikings-Browns from London last Sunday, Tierney told readers to go Over 38 without hesitation. The result? Minnesota 33, Cleveland 16, another easy cash.

Amazingly, it also helped improve Tierney's Over-Under record to 14-6 this season after he went a blistering 22-9 last year. He was 2-0 last week and has a gift for picking NFL totals. Anyone who has followed his picks is up big.

Tierney knows the Bills have gone Over in all three road games this season and are 15th in the league in scoring. Meanwhile, the Jets have had two games with at least 59 total points scored. And last week's outing against the Falcons, also at home, produced 45 in heavy rain and strong winds.

The Jets may be without DE Muhammad Wilkerson, who is suffering from shoulder, toe, and foot ailments. His absence would further bolster the Bills' eighth-ranked run game (124.6 yards per game). In the last meeting between these two teams, Bills RB LeSean McCoy ran wild for 110 yards.

Meanwhile, the Bills traded for former Panthers wideout Kelvin Benjamin. Whether Benjamin, who was traded on Tuesday, will be active on Thursday night, and if so how much he'll play, remains to be seen. Even if he is limited to red zone plays or other special packages, he'll provide a boost to the Bills' receiving corps.

But just because these two teams have trended Over doesn't mean Thursday Night Football tops 42.5 points, especially on a short week in a divisional game.

The Bills are No. 1 in the league with 17 takeaways and are tied for second in points allowed with just 16.4. It could be tough sledding for Jets QB Josh McCown, who has already tossed seven picks this season.

In the last six games between the Bills and Jets, the total has gone Over 42.5 just once, and that game included a defensive touchdown. The Bills have held every opponent except one to 20 points or less this season.

Tierney also knows these two teams played in Week 1; the Bills won 21-12 at home, a total of just 33 points. McCown threw two picks in that contest and the Jets' leading rusher, Bilal Powell, was held to just 22 yards.

Tierney is leaning on the Jets to cover, but what about the Over-Under, which he has made his name picking?

He knows there's a huge x-factor that ultimately determines whether Jets-Bills on "Thursday Night Football" goes Over or Under. And he's sharing it over at SportsLine.

So which side should you back in Bills-Jets on Thursday night? And does this game go Over or Under? Visit SportsLine now to see what big x-factor sends Bills-Jets Over or Under, and see which side of the total you need to be all over, all from the expert who is blistering hot on NFL total plays.

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