Chiefs vs. Bears odds: NFL preseason picks from proven expert who went 7-0 in playoffs

The Kansas City Chiefs are five-point favorites over the Chicago Bears on Saturday. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET from Soldier Field, with the Over-Under for total points scored at 44.5. The Chiefs are -220 on the money line, meaning a $220 bet would win $100. The underdog Bears are +180 (risk $100 to win $180). The Bears are 1-2 in the preseason so far, dropping the Hall of Fame Game against Baltimore and falling to the Bengals in Cincinnati. Last week, Chicago beat the Broncos in Denver and return home for the first time this preseason. The Chiefs split with the Texans and Falcons. Before you lock in any Bears vs. Chiefs picks, you need to see what SportsLine's Josh Nagel has to say.

He has been on point in the preseason. Nagel picked the Bears to cover against the Ravens in the Hall of Fame Game and went 2-1 in selections for SportsLine members last week. He also closed out last season with a 7-0 run picking spreads in the playoffs. Now, he has scoured every aspect of this matchup and released a confident spread pick for Bears-Chiefs, which he's only sharing over at SportsLine. 

Nagel knows both starting signal-callers are expected to see extensive playing time, as Week 3 of the 2018 NFL preseason serves as a substantial dress rehearsal for both clubs. Chicago's Mitchell Trubisky finished 9-of-14 passing for 90 yards with one touchdown and an interception in Chicago's 24-23 victory over Denver in Week 2. Chase Daniel replaced him and threw two second-half touchdowns to lead the Bears back from a two-score deficit. 

Meanwhile, Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes had an encouraging outing in Kansas City's 28-14 win over the Falcons in Atlanta and made the highlight-reel circuit with one throw in particular. Mahomes hit WR Tyreek Hill with a touchdown pass that traveled 70 yards in the air, showing the arm strength that, in part, elevated him to the starting role. Mahomes finished 8-of-12 for 138 yards, but also had some mistakes, as he threw one interception and had another potential pick dropped by a defender. 

Kansas City benefitted from strong play from its backups, as veterans Chad Henne and Matt McGloin combined to hit on 17 of their 20 attempts for 143 yards. Henne also threw a touchdown pass.

So which team is a must-back against the spread? Nagel has delved into this matchup and discovered the key x-factor that will determine the outcome. He has released a strong spread selection, which he's only sharing over at SportsLine. 

Who wins Chiefs-Bears? And what critical factor causes one side of the spread to hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on Saturday, all from an expert who hit on 70 percent of his NFL spread picks last year and was undefeated in the postseason.

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