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The Kansas City Chiefs entered the 2021 NFL season having lost a total of six regular season games over the previous two campaigns. Five of the defeats - including both of their setbacks in 2020 - came at home, with four of them being by fewer than nine points. One of Kansas City's two losses this year took place in its own stadium, also by just one score. The Chiefs (2-2) hope to produce a better result in Week 5 as they host the Buffalo Bills (3-1) on Sunday Night Football. 

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a three-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 56.5. Before locking in any Bills vs. Chiefs picks and NFL predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 5 of the 2021 season on an incredible 124-82 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Chiefs. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Chiefs vs. Bills:

  • Chiefs vs. Bills spread: Kansas City -3
  • Chiefs vs. Bills over-under: 56.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Bills money line: Kansas City -150, Buffalo +130
  • KC: The Chiefs are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight home games
  • BUF: The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings with Kansas City
Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

Why Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is second in the NFL in total offense (427.5 yards) and ranks first in yards per play (6.9) and touchdowns through the air (14). Patrick Mahomes threw five of them in the Chiefs' 42-30 victory at Philadelphia last Sunday as he improved to 40-10 as a starter in the league. The former NFL MVP joined Hall-of-Famer Ken Stabler (40-9-1) as the only quarterbacks during the Super Bowl era to win 40 of their first 50 career starts.

Mahomes was impressive in last season's victories against Buffalo in Week 6 of the regular season and the AFC Championship Game. The 26-year-old completed 50-of-64 pass attempts for 550 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions in the two triumphs. Mahomes threw for 325 yards in the postseason victory, with 290 of them gained by Tyreek Hill (172) and tight end Travis Kelce (118), who hauled in two of the star quarterback's three TD passes.

Why Josh Allen and the Bills can cover

Buffalo has won 12 of its last 14 regular season games, with most of the victories coming with relative ease. The Bills have posted each of their last 10 wins by 10 or more points, with the last six coming by at least 20. They also have been dominant on the road of late, becoming just the fifth team in NFL history to win three straight away contests by 28 or more points.

The Bills have scored at least 35 points in each of their last three games, all victories, while allowing a total of 21. Last Sunday, Buffalo's top-ranked defense limited Houston to only six first downs and 109 total yards. The Bills also created five turnovers, intercepting Texans rookie Davis Mills four times while forcing a fumble.

How to make Chiefs vs. Bills picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with both teams projected to combine for 55 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Bills vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that's 124-82 on its NFL picks, and find out.