The 2021 AFC Championship Game will pit two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL against each other as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen go head-to-head in what many expect to be the first of several big postseason matchups. Despite Mahomes spending part of this past week in the concussion protocol, the NFL odds have remained steady with the Chiefs as three-point favorites. However, the total has jumped from 54 to 54.5 and there are several Chiefs vs. Bills player props from William Hill Sportsbook impacted by the news.
The over-under for Mahomes' total passing yards is set at 314.5 in the latest 2021 AFC Championship Game prop odds. Mahomes managed just 225 passing yards in a 26-17 win against Buffalo in Week 6. So which side of the Mahomes prop should you be on and what other NFL player props should you jump on in Sunday's AFC Championship Game? Before locking in any NFL prop bets for Sunday's 2021 AFC Championship Game, you need to see the Bills vs. Chiefs prop predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters Wild Card Weekend on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
With the 2021 AFC Championship Game on Sunday, the model has evaluated the NFL player props from William Hill and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.
Top NFL player prop bets for 2021 AFC Championship Game
The model says Allen goes well under 306.5 passing yards (-115), predicting that he throws for nearly 50 yards less than that on average. Allen put himself in MVP contention with 4,544 passing yards and 37 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions, while rushing for another 421 yards and eight scores. He might be the most improved player in the league after making enormous strides as a passer in his third year as a starter.
However, recent trends and the matchups don't seem to bode well with such a lofty target yardage in play here. Allen threw the ball 37 times last week in a win over the Ravens, but a tough defense and windy conditions left him with only 206 passing yards at the end of the day. That's the second time in three games he's failed to clear 225 passing yards and the forecast for Sunday calls for temperatures in the 30s, possible precipitation and double-digit winds as he takes on a Chiefs defense that held him to 122 passing yards in Week 6.
The model also says Bills running back Devin Singletary is a good bet to go under 2.5 receptions (+130), predicting he hauls in just 2.0 passes on average. Singletary was targeted 50 times during the regular season and recorded 38 catches for 269 yards. So even though he has an active role in the passing attack, he's more of an ancillary piece than backs like Austin Ekeler or Alvin Kamara, who are featured as receivers out of the backfield.
Because of that, Singletary is at the mercy of what the flow of the game presents to him and he's failed to record three or more receptions in half of the games he's played this year. That includes a one-catch performance where he was only targeted twice in Week 6 against Kansas City. With a plus-money payout, there's plenty of value on the under even though he's had exactly three catches in both of Buffalo's playoff games.
How to make NFL player prop bets for Chiefs vs. Bills
In addition, the model is high on a first-touchdown prop that delivers a huge return. You need to see the model's analysis before making any 2021 AFC Championship Game prop bets for Sunday.
Which Chiefs vs. Bills prop bet offers a huge return? And what other prop bets does the model love for Sunday's 2021 AFC Championship Game? Visit SportsLine now to see the top AFC Championship Game prop bets, all from the model that's up almost $7,900 on top-rated NFL picks.