The Chiefs are looking to extend their lead in the AFC West when they roll into Denver to face the Broncos on Sunday afternoon for their first of two matchups in 2020. Kansas City is coming into this game off a short week after handing the Buffalo Bills a loss in their own building on Monday night. Meanwhile, Denver comes into this game off a Week 6 win of their own, upsetting the Patriots in New England.
With Drew Lock now healthy, this scrappy Broncos team could prove to be a tough out, even for the defending Super Bowl champions. That said, Patrick Mahomes and company haven't seemed to scratch the surface of their potential in 2020 yet and the offense is set to welcome in running back Le'Veon Bell right after totaling 245 yards on the ground without him against Buffalo. Needless to say, this should be an entertaining divisional head-to-head.
Here, we'll be giving all the betting angles of this matchup, including the spread, total, and some of our favorite prop bets. You'll also find some of the latest trends on how the lines moved throughout the week. All odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
How to watch
Chiefs (-9.5) at Broncos
The line opened at Chiefs -8.5 and was rather quick to bump up a full point early in the week, doing so by Tuesday afternoon. Since then, it's held true with the oddsmakers seeing K.C. as nearly a double-digit favorite on the road.
The pick: Chiefs -9.5. Had the weather not been so damp against the Bills, I think we would have seen the Chiefs really flex their offensive power even more than what we did see. Kansas City seems to be building towards an offensive explosion and I foresee that happening on Sunday in Denver. Meanwhile, the Chiefs play great in Denver, covering six straight games. Patrick Mahomes is also 14-5-1 ATS in his 20 starts on the road in his career.
While the spread has largely seen little movement, the point total is where things are a little more fluid. After opening up at 49.5, the number hs drastically dipped as the public clearly didn't see Denver as a club capable of matching the Chiefs' scoring output. Since the opening, there been a steady decline as the total has fallen as far as 45.5 as of Friday.
The pick: Under 45.5. As much as I feel like we're going to see the Chiefs offense blow up for around 30 points in this game, I don't foresee the Broncos being able to match them or come relatively close. Coming into Week 7, the Broncos have scored a touchdown on only 40.0% (6/15) of their red zone drives, ranking third-worst in the league. Kansas City's defense is good enough to allow that trend to continue. The Chiefs also come into this matchup with the under hitting in six-straight road games, the longest actives streak in the NFL.
Best prop bets
Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns: Over/ 1.5 (-180). No brainer. Mahomes has passed for two or more touchdowns in every game he's played in this year and I expect nothing less in Week 7.
Travis Kelce total receiving yards: Over 67.5 (-115). Talented tight ends have been able to find success against this Denver secondary and Kelce is arguably as talented as they come at the position. He's gone over this total in four of his six matchups this season and should once again be the primary target of Mahomes when he drops back to pass.
Tim Patrick total receiving yards: Over 47.5 (-115). I anticipate Denver being down for the bulk of this game, which points to them throwing the ball a ton. In that spirit, it seems like the Over on Patrick is a smash after he's gone back-to-back contests with over 100 yards receiving. Drew Lock will look his way early and often giving him plenty of opportunities.
Tyreek Hill total receiving yards: Over 59.5 (-115). The conditions were largely to blame for the lack of a deep passing attack by the Chiefs in Week 6 and was likely why Hill only had 20 receiving yards. Outside of Week 1 and Week 6, he's gone over this total rather easily and I expect him to rip off most of it with a single grab.
Tyreek Hill total receptions: Under 4.5 (+110). While I see Hill hitting the over on his receiving yards, that's largely thanks to his burning speed. I'm not so sure, however, that he'll get a ton of volume. Hill has gone under this total in three-straight games and with the rushing attack working as well as it is, Hill may not need to be used as frequently.