In the eyes of many football observers, Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid cemented his legacy as one of the sport's most prolific leaders by winning his first Super Bowl with the franchise last year. Reid will lead his team on a quest towards a second consecutive championship when the Chiefs host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday in the 2021 NFL Playoffs. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 3:05 p.m. ET on CBS.

Reid's extensive resume includes dominance against the Browns, who remain one of four NFL franchises never to have reached a Super Bowl. Reid is 7-0 all-time against the Browns, going 4-0 as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles and 3-0 with the Chiefs. Kansas City is a 9.5-point favorite and the over-under for total points scored is 57 in the latest Chiefs vs. Browns odds at William Hill Sportsbook. Before making any Browns vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you see what SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. In the 2019 season, he went 58-39 on against-the-spread NFL picks, giving his followers a profit of more than $1,500. He also heads into this weekend on a 19-9 run with his NFL selections for SportsLine members.

What's more, Hartstein has had a keen eye for the trajectories of these clubs and has compiled an eye-popping 16-3 record on NFL picks against-the-spread picks involving Cleveland or Kansas City over the past three seasons. Anyone who has consistently followed him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Chiefs vs. Browns. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Browns:

  • Chiefs vs. Browns point spread: Chiefs -9.5
  • Chiefs vs. Browns over-under total: 57 points
  • Chiefs vs. Browns money line: Chiefs -475, Browns +380
  • CLE: Underdog has covered the spread in five of the last seven meetings in this series
  • KC: Chiefs have covered four of their last five postseason home games

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 4-1 against the spread in its last five home playoff games, and Patrick Mahomes had another stellar season. He led the league's top offense (415.8 yards per game) and was second in passing yards with 4,740. He threw 38 TD passes and added 308 rushing yards.

The real talent is among the pass-catchers, led by tight end Travis Kelce, who was second in the NFL in both receptions (105) and yards (1,416) and has scored 11 TDs. Fellow All-Pro Tyreek Hill (1,276 yards, 15 TDs) leads a speedy fleet of receivers.

The Chiefs are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games after allowing more than 30 points in the previous game, and the defense also has stars in All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu (six interceptions) and tackle Chris Jones (7.5 sacks).

Why the Browns can cover

Baker Mayfield has notched another chapter in his story that saw him go from a walk-on in college to winning the Heisman Trophy to becoming a top overall NFL draft pick. Since donning the Browns jersey for the first time, he has gone from being viewed as a potential franchise savior to a possible bust, but appears to have settled somewhere in between.

That's just fine for the Browns coaching staff, who have tailored the game plan to Mayfield's strengths while limiting his weaknesses. The majority of the passing game comes from play-action and involves limited routes, but Mayfield has been consistently steady with a simplified passing game while also mixing in the occasional long throw or getting a key first down with his legs.

How to make Chiefs vs. Browns picks

Hartstein has analyzed this matchup, and while he's leaning over on the total, he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing it here. 

So who wins Browns vs. Chiefs in the NFL Playoffs 2021? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Browns vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the expert who's 16-3 on picks involving Cleveland or Kansas City, and find out.