Chiefs vs. Chargers odds, line: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions by advanced model on 16-3 run

Revenge will be on the mind of the Los Angeles Chargers when they travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in a crucial late-season divisional matchup. It all goes down on Thursday Night Football, with kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium set for 8:20 p.m. ET in the first game of the Week 15 NFL schedule. While the Chiefs try to lock down the AFC West with a victory, the Chargers hope to even the season series and forge a first-place tie after their Week 1 home loss to Patrick Mahomes and company. Kansas City is a 3.5-point home favorite. The Over-Under has been moving quickly ahead of kickoff and stands at 54 in latest Chargers vs. Chiefs odds. Before you make any Chargers vs. Chiefs picks and Thursday Night Football predictions, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say about the game, which is filled with implications for the NFL playoff picture.

The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 15 on a blistering 16-3 run. For the season, it is now 30-12 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-46. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model finished Week 14 at 139-67 on the season, ranking in the top two on NFLPickWatch.com. Anyone who has followed it is way, way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Chiefs vs. Chargers. We can tell you it's leaning Over, but it's also generated a point-spread pick that's hitting over 50 percent of the time. You can only see that one at SportsLine. 

The model has factored in that Kansas City hasn't had to depend on its defense this season. Instead, the Chiefs boast the league's highest-scoring offense at 36.2 points per game. However, with the game on the line Sunday against the Ravens, the Chiefs' defensive unit came up clutch, boxing in scrambling quarterback Lamar Jackson, sacking him three times and holding him to just 147 passing yards in an overtime victory.

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes remains an MVP front-runner after his amazing fourth-down completion to Tyreek Hill deep in the fourth quarter that led to the tying touchdown against Baltimore. He has tossed an incredible 43 touchdowns for 4,300 yards. He's also scrambled for over 200 yards and two more scores.

But just because the Chargers dropped their first game against the Chiefs doesn't mean they can't cover the Thursday Night Football spread.

Quarterback Philip Rivers is enjoying one of his best seasons of his 15-year career, with 29 touchdowns against only six interceptions. With running back Melvin Gordon still nursing a knee injury and backup Austin Ekeler coping with a neck stinger, getting the bulk of backfield work could be rookie running back Justin Jackson. In limited action, he's averaging 5.1 yards per carry and, with his speed, is capable of becoming a strong weapon in the screen game. He had over 80 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown two weeks ago against the Steelers.

Wideout Keenan Allen is having a Pro Bowl-caliber season with 1,074 receiving yards. He is adept at using his 6-2 frame to box out cornerbacks and come down with timely grabs. 

Who wins Chargers vs. Chiefs? And which side covers in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over on Thursday night, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.

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