The Kansas City Chiefs can move one step closer towards winning the AFC West when they take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs (9-4) lead the division by one game over the Chargers (8-5), and a win over Los Angeles would give Kansas City a commanding two-game lead with three games to play. A win also would prevent the Chargers from owning the tiebreaker if both teams finish the regular season with the same record.

Kickoff from SoFi Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is favored by three points in the latest Chiefs vs. Chargers odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 54. Before locking in any Chargers vs. Chiefs picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 15 of the 2021 season on an incredible 132-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Chiefs vs. Chargers 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Chargers:

  • Chiefs vs. Chargers spread: Kansas City -3
  • Chiefs vs. Chargers over-under: 54 points 
  • Chiefs vs. Chargers money line: Kansas City -160, Los Angeles +140 
  • KC: Chiefs are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall 
  • LAC: Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games
Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Why the Chiefs can cover

The Chiefs' high-powered offense is led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and tight end Travis Kelce. Andy Reid's unit has tallied at least 370 total yards of offense in nine games thus far. Their best outing came in the Week 10 victory against the Las Vegas Raiders, when Kansas City finished with 516 total yards of offense.

Mahomes threw for 406 yards with five passing touchdowns in that game. Kelce led the team with 119 yards on eight receptions, while Hill racked up 83 yards with two scores. The last time these two teams played, the Chiefs finished with 437 total yards of offense.

Why the Chargers can cover

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is having another excellent season. The former first round pick from Oregon ranks third in the NFL in touchdown passes (30) and fourth in passing yards per game (294.0). He is coming off one of his best games of the season: 23-of-31 passing, 275 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Giants.

In addition, Los Angeles will get top receiver Keenan Allen back this week. Allen, who missed last week while on the reserve/COVID-19 list, was activated from the list earlier this week. Allen, who has been selected to the Pro Bowl the past four seasons, leads the Chargers with 86 receptions and 929 receiving yards and has four receiving touchdowns.

How to make Chiefs vs. Chargers picks 

SportsLine's model is leaning under the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 52 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Chiefs vs. Chargers picks at SportsLine

So who wins Chargers vs. Chiefs on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chargers vs. Chiefs spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.