The pressure will be on the defense when the New England Patriots visit Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs in a special Monday night matchup. Backup Brian Hoyer is expected to get the start at quarterback for New England (2-1) after Cam Newton tested positive for coronavirus, while the Super Bowl champion Chiefs (3-0) were impressive in last week's Monday Night Football matchup. Kansas City defeated the Ravens 34-20 last week, while the running game led New England to a 36-20 win against the Raiders. New England's defense is still making big plays, but K.C. quarterback Patrick Mahomes presents a different challenge.
Kickoff is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium on CBS. Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Chiefs odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 48.5. Before making any Chiefs vs. Patriots picks, be sure to see the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It's off to a strong 7-2 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 4 on an incredible 103-67 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has simulated Patriots vs. Chiefs 10,000 times. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Chiefs vs. Patriots:
- Patriots vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -10.5
- Patriots vs. Chiefs over-under: 48.5
- Patriots vs. Chiefs money line: New England +450, Kansas City -600
- NE: Forced a turnover on 23.3 percent of opponent drives this season.
- KC: Eight different players have scored for an offense that has produced 11 TDs.
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City is 8-0 against the spread in its last eight games after posting more than 250 yards passing in its previous game, and Mahomes threw for 385 yards against Baltimore. He was not intercepted or sacked while ending the Ravens' 14-game regular-season winning streak. All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce led the team with 87 receiving yards and five Chiefs had more than 60, with Mecole Hardman and Tyreek Hill scoring TDs.
The Chiefs are 6-0-1 against the spread in their last seven games as home favorites, and rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 134 total yards Monday night. The defense is allowing yardage but is sixth in the league in scoring defense, allowing 20 points per game. Kansas City can get after the passer, posting 10 sacks, and Chris Jones is tied for second in the NFL with 3.5. He tweaked his groin in Week 3 and is listed as questionable, but Frank Clark (two sacks) and rookie Mike Danna (one) also can apply pressure.
Why the Patriots can cover
New England is 41-23 against the spread in non-division games over the past five seasons, and the defense is 12th in the NFL in total yards allowed (357.7). A year after posting a plus-21 turnover margin, the Pats are at plus-four, and four defensive backs have interceptions. The secondary is the strength, with safeties Devin McCourty (interception return for a touchdown) and Adrian Phillips (team-high 23 tackles) leading the way.
The defense also has scored twice and has five sacks for the Patriots, who are 30-20-1 against the spread overall since 2017. Chase Winovich is one of three players with 1.5 sacks, while linebackers Ja'Whaun Bentley and Brandon Copeland have a combined 25 tackles. Hoyer is in his third stint with New England and has reliable options in wide receivers Julian Edelman (259 yards) and N'Keal Harry (15 catches). The Patriots lead the NFL in rushing at 178 yards per game.
How to make Patriots vs. Chiefs picks
The model is leaning under on the total, suggesting Burkhead will be limited for New England and K.C.'s secondary receivers will be held in check. It also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it.
So who wins Patriots vs. Chiefs on Monday night? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Chiefs vs. Patriots spread you should be all over Monday, all from the model on a 103-67 roll on its top-rated NFL picks.
