The Baltimore Ravens suffered a tough overtime loss in their opener, and now they host the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens have been a contender in both of Lamar Jackson's full seasons as a starter, and the 2019 NFL MVP nearly willed the injury-ravaged team to victory on Monday night. The Baltimore defense was abysmal, and it was two lost fumbles by Jackson that ultimately led to a 33-27 loss to the Raiders. Kansas City, meanwhile, rallied to beat the Browns 33-29 in Week 1, with 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes leading the comeback despite a poor performance from his defense. The MVPs are hoping to shine on the prime-time stage, and it could be a shootout after the defenses combined to allow nearly 950 yards in Week 1.
Kickoff from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is listed as the 3.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Ravens odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under for total points scored is set at 53.5. Before you lock in your Ravens vs. Chiefs picks, you have to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 2 of the 2021 season on an incredible 121-79 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has broken down Sunday Night Football's Ravens vs. Chiefs matchup. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are some betting lines and trends for Chiefs vs. Ravens:
- Chiefs vs. Ravens spread: Kansas City -3.5
- Chiefs vs. Ravens over-under: 53.5 points
- Chiefs vs. Ravens money line: Kansas City -200, Baltimore +170
- Chiefs: Road team is 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 meetings
- Ravens: 45-33-3 ATS as an underdog under John Harbaugh (since 2008)
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City's offense remains a force, and that showed in Week 1, when Mahomes threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns, including a 75-yarder to Tyreek Hill, who had 197 yards. Hill and tight end Travis Kelce are the best in the league at their positions, and Mahomes takes full advantage. The 2018 NFL MVP is 16-8-1 against the spread in career road games, and he has never lost in September. He has 37 TD passes and zero interceptions while going 11-0 during the month. He is 3-0, averaging 379 yards, with 10 TDs and one pick, against the Ravens.
Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has 846 yards in 14 career games, should keep the Ravens defense off balance, and that unit gave up a league-high 491 yards last week, with 409 through the air. Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense will get some help after allowing 457 to the Browns. Leader and playmaker Tyrann Mathieu, who had six interceptions last season, will be back, and the team also hopes for the return of Frank Clark, who had six sacks.
Why the Ravens can cover
The Ravens are 10-1 against the spread in their past 11 regular season games as an underdog. Baltimore's defense gave up the most yardage in the league last week, but it had three sacks and an interception. Calais Campbell and linebackers Patrick Queen, Justin Houston and Tyus Bowser are all playmakers, and Marlon Humphrey is one of the league's top cornerbacks. The defense won't make it easy on Mahomes, and they will have the home crowd to help rattle him and keep them fired up. The Baltimore running game also will try to keep him off the field.
Even though it is without its top two running backs, Baltimore led the league with 189 yards on the ground in Week 1. It has led the NFL the past two seasons, with Jackson topping 1,000 rushing yards both years. He had 86 Monday night, and Ty'Son Williams added 65 on nine carries. The Chiefs gave up 153 yards on the ground against the Browns last week, and Kansas City is 2-10 ATS in its past 12 games, including the playoffs.
How to make Chiefs vs. Ravens picks
The model has zeroed in on Ravens vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. The model is leaning Under the total, suggesting both offenses will be one-dimensional. It also says that one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations, and you can only see the pick at SportsLine.
Who wins Ravens vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Chiefs vs. Ravens spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 121-79 roll on its top-rated NFL picks.