Chiefs vs. Texans odds, line, predictions: 2019 NFL picks from advanced model on 85-57 roll

Heavyweights clash on Sunday when the AFC South co-leading Houston Texans meet the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs. The Texans (3-2), who won the South with an 11-5 record in 2018, are 6-4 on the road since the beginning of last year. On the other sideline, the Chiefs (4-1), who won the West at 12-4 a year ago, are 8-2 at home since the start of last season. The game kicks at 1 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The teams have played just two times at Arrowhead since Houston joined the league in 2002, with each earning a win. Kansas City is favored by four in the latest Chiefs vs. Texans odds after the line opened at 6.5, while the over-under for total points scored is 55. You'll want to see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model before entering any Texans vs. Chiefs picks of your own.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 6 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 23-14 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an 85-57 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 5, it nailed the Rams (+1.5) staying within the spread against the Seahawks and the Texans (-4) covering with room to spare against the Falcons.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has dialed in on Chiefs vs. Texans. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it has a strong against the spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.

The model knows the Chiefs, who beat the Texans 42-34 in their last meeting in Houston two years ago, have made 21 postseason appearances in their history, including four straight and five of the past six seasons. Offensively, tight end Travis Kelce has emerged as one of the Chiefs' top weapons and leads the team with 28 receptions for 439 yards and one touchdown. The Chiefs could get speedster Tyreek Hill back from a shoulder injury. Hill is officially questionable, and if he doesn't go, Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, and Byron Pringle will carry the load at receiver

On defense, Chiefs linebacker Damien Wilson has been a force and leads the team with 35 tackles, including 25 solo. He also has one-half sack, 1.5 tackles for loss and one forced fumble. Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah spends plenty of time in opposing backfields, recording a team-high 2.5 sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss, while also forcing one fumble.  

But just because Mahomes and company have a high-powered offense does not guarantee they will cover the Chiefs vs. Texans spread on Sunday. 

That's because the Texans have also experienced plenty of success of late, appearing in the postseason five times since 2011. Houston has also had a winning record in four of the past five seasons and six of the past eight. The Texans have also won the AFC South in three of the past four years.

Offensively, the Texans are led by quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 1,364 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has been picked off just once. He has also carried the ball 22 times for 122 yards (5.5 average) and three touchdowns. Watson shredded the Falcons last week, completing 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards and five touchdowns.

So who wins Texans vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Chiefs spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

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