Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are coming off a dominant 31-0 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, while the Commanders limp into this contest having lost three of their last four games. Washington will be without quarterback Jayden Daniels due to a hamstring injury, making way for Marcus Mariota to start. According to the latest Commanders vs. Chiefs odds, Kansas City is favored by 12.5 points, while the over/under for total points scored is 48.
SportsLine's proven computer model is backing the Commanders (+12.5) to cover in its same-game parlay for Monday Night Football. It is also backing Mahomes Over 277.5 passing yards and Travis Kelce Over 42.5 receiving yards. Those NFL picks make up a same-game parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook that pays out more than 5-1.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 43-28 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Three MNF SGP betting picks for NFL Week 8 (odds subject to change):
- Commanders +12.5 (-112)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 277.5 passing yards (-112)
- Travis Kelce Over 42.5 receiving yards (-112)
Combining the model's three Chiefs vs. Commanders picks into a same-game parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +578 (risk $100 to win $578).
Commanders +12.5 (-112, DraftKings)
The Commanders will be without Jayden Daniels (hamstring) on Monday, which is why the line has ballooned to 12.5. However, Washington is 1-1 with Marcus Mariota as its starting quarterback this season, and the Commanders averaged 34 points per game during that two-game stretch. SportsLine's model is backing Kansas City to win, but the Commanders cover the spread in 57% of the model's simulations.
Patrick Mahomes Over 277.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)
Mahomes has thrown for 270 or more yards in three of his last four outings, and he's completed at least 70% of his passes in three straight games. Washington enters Monday's matchup giving up 238.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 25th in the NFL. SportsLine's model has Mahomes finishing with 292 passing yards on average.
Travis Kelce Over 42.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)
Kelce has eclipsed this total in four consecutive games, and he's expected to remain a focal point in Kansas City's passing attack on Monday. The veteran tight end has racked up at least five receptions in three of his last four games, and he's averaging 12.1 yards per reception this season. He is recording 4.7 catches for 56 yards in the model's latest simulations, providing value at this number.
