The Cleveland Browns will look for their third win in a row when they take on the host Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. The Browns (2-1) are out to improve on last year's third-place finish in the AFC North when they were 6-10. The Cowboys (1-2), meanwhile, will try to better their 8-8 mark from 2019, when they placed second in the NFC East, one game behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas has won four straight in the series, including two in a row at home.

The game is slated to start at 1 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Browns have allowed 29.3 points per game this season, while the Cowboys are allowing 32.3. The Cowboys are favored by 3.5-points in the latest Browns vs. Cowboys odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 56. Before making any Cowboys vs. Browns picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It's off to a strong 7-2 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 4 on an incredible 103-67 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated Cowboys vs. Browns 10,000 times. You can visit SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Browns vs. Cowboys:

  • Cowboys vs. Browns spread: Cowboys -3.5
  • Cowboys vs. Browns over-under: 56 points
  • Cowboys vs. Browns money line: Browns +170, Cowboys -190
  • CLE: LB B.J. Goodson had an interception and a fumble recovery last week
  • DAL: Is first in the NFL in total yards per game at 503.3

Why the Cowboys can cover

Dallas has not had any problem finding the end zone this season and is ranked eighth in the league in scoring at 29.3 points per game. A big part of the Cowboys' offense is wide receiver Amari Cooper, who leads the team with 25 receptions for 267 yards, including three explosive plays and 71 yards after the catch. Last week at Seattle, Cooper had nine catches for 86 yards. In his last game against Cleveland as a member of the Raiders, Cooper had eight receptions for 128 yards and one touchdown.

Another weapon on offense is wide receiver Michael Gallup, who is second on the team in receiving yards (246) on 11 catches and one touchdown. He has five explosive plays and has converted nine first downs. Against Seattle, Gallup had six catches for a team-high 138 yards and one touchdown. He has four touchdown receptions in his past five home games.

Why the Browns can cover

Despite that, Dallas is not a lock to cover the Browns vs. Cowboys spread. That's because Cleveland has been putting up points the last two weeks with a 35-30 win over Cincinnati and a 34-20 victory over Washington. Quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 16 of 23 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns for a season-high 117.3 rating last week. He is looking for his third game in a row with two or more touchdown passes and a 110-plus rating. 

Also looking for another big game is running back Nick Chubb, who rushed for 108 yards and two TDs against Washington. In his last three games against NFC opponents, Chubb has 397 yards from scrimmage and five rushing touchdowns. Chubb is tied for the NFL lead with four rushing touchdowns and is fourth with 292 rushing yards.

How to make Browns vs. Cowboys picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total. In fact, it says Chubb will be held to 92 yards and one TD, while Prescott will throw for just two touchdowns and one interception. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here

So who wins Cowboys vs. Browns? And which side of the spread cashes in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Browns vs. Cowboys spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,500 on its NFL picks over the past five seasons, and find out.