NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Training Camp
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys will look to keep coach Mike McCarthy's perfect record at AT&T Stadium intact when they play host to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. McCarthy, who coached the Green Bay Packers prior to taking over the Cowboys' job last offseason, is 5-0 with a Super Bowl win in the building. He hasn't been quite as successful, however, coaching against the Falcons, posting a 3-4 mark against Atlanta.

The game is slated to start at 1 p.m. ET. The Cowboys are favored by a field goal in the latest Cowboys vs. Falcons odds from William Hill after the line opened at seven, while the over-under is 53.5. Before making any Cowboys vs. Falcons picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,400 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five years ago. It went a perfect 4-0 on top-rated NFL picks in Week 1, including calling easy covers by the Ravens and Bills. The model enters Week 2 on an incredible 100-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Falcons vs. Cowboys. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds from William Hill and trends for Cowboys vs. Falcons:

  • Falcons vs. Cowboys spread: Cowboys -3
  • Falcons vs. Cowboys over-under: 53.5 points
  • Falcons vs. Cowboys money line: Falcons +150, Cowboys -170
  • ATL: DE Takkarist McKinley had one sack and one pass breakup last week
  • DAL: DE Everson Griffen has at least one sack in two of his last three games against Atlanta

Why the Cowboys can cover

Dallas will try to take advantage of a talented wide receiver unit led by Amari Cooper, who paced the Cowboys with 10 receptions for 81 yards in the opener. It was his eighth career game with 10 or more catches. In 13 career home games for Dallas, Cooper has 87 receptions for 1,420 yards and 11 touchdowns. In 16 games last season, he led the team with 79 receptions for 1,189 yards and eight touchdowns. He had 17 explosive plays and converted 54 first downs. 

Also adding to the depth of the receiving corps is Michael Gallup, who had 50 receiving yards against the Rams last week. Gallup finished second on the team in 2019 with 66 receptions for 1,107 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games. He also had 18 explosive plays with 50 first down conversions. Gallup had five receiving touchdowns in seven home games last year.

Why the Falcons can cover

Atlanta features an extremely explosive offense as well. Against Seattle last week, quarterback Matt Ryan torched the Seahawks' secondary for 450 yards and two touchdowns. His 51,636 career passing yards surpassed Denver's John Elway (51,475) for ninth-most in NFL history. In his last start against the Cowboys, Ryan passed for 285 yards and two touchdowns with a 109.1 rating. He had 300 or more passing yards in six of his eight road starts a year ago.

Running back Todd Gurley has also had success against Dallas. Gurley, who rushed for 56 yards and a score in his Atlanta debut in Week 1, has 253 scrimmage yards (126.5 per game) and three touchdowns, including two receiving, in two career games against the Cowboys.

Last season as a member of the Rams, Gurley played in 15 games and had a team-high 857 yards rushing on 223 carries and 12 touchdowns. He also had 31 receptions for 207 yards and two more scores.

How to make Falcons vs. Cowboys picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, as both quarterbacks combine to pass for more than 600 yards. It also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Falcons vs. Cowboys? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Cowboys vs. Falcons spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,400 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.