We have an interconference matchup on tap this weekend, as Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles host the Los Angeles Chargers. These two teams are feeling pretty differently entering this week. Justin Herbert and Co. are coming off of a deflating, 27-24 loss to the New England Patriots while the Eagles throttled the Detroit Lions, 44-6. Philly racked up 236 yards and four touchdowns on the ground in the surprising blowout.
Will the Eagles again rely on the ground game without Miles Sanders against a struggling defense? Or will Herbert rebound and find a way to put up big numbers again in this offense? Below, we will break down this matchup from a gambling perspective and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch Sunday's matchup.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
This line reopened at LAC -3 on Tuesday. It fell half a point to LAC -2.5 on Sunday night, but rose back up to LAC -3 on Monday morning. This Tuesday it fell as low as LAC -1, but it currently sits at LAC -1.5.
The pick: Chargers -1.5. This game is actually one of my top five ATS picks of the week. Here are my thoughts:
"The Chargers find themselves on a two-game skid and they need this win to keep pace in the AFC West. There's no denying Justin Herbert has struggled over his last two outings. He has thrown the same number of interceptions (three) in his last two games as he did in the first five games of the season. Still, I think this L.A. team is better than Philly.
"I am worried about the Chargers' blatant inability to defend the run, but is Nick Sirianni confident enough to lean on the ground game without Miles Sanders if the Eagles go down early? The stats say that the Eagles have the No. 6 rushing attack in the league, but I think that's mostly because of last week's historic outing against a very bad Lions team. Let's not kid ourselves: quarterback Jalen Hurts is the main player you need to worry about on the ground for the Eagles. The Chargers have won four of their past five games on the road while the Eagles have lost four straight home games. In fact, the Eagles haven't beaten an AFC team since 2019."
The total has not seen a ton of movement. It reopened at 50.5 on Tuesday night, fell to 50 on Tuesday afternoon and then 49.5 on Thursday.
The pick: Under 49.5. The lean is to the Under here. The total has gone Under in five out of the Chargers' last seven games while the Eagles are 4-4 on the Over/Under. My final score prediction is 26-20.
Jared Cook receiving yards: Over 28.5 (-110). This line seems low. Although Cook hasn't crossed this yardage mark in the last two games, it could take just a few catches. He had 70 yards against the Las Vegas Raiders earlier this season.
Jalen Hurts rushing yards: Over 49.5 (-120). As we stated above, Hurts is the main player you have to worry about for Philly in the run game. He leads the Eagles with 432 yards rushing this season and has rushed for at least 61 yards in each of the last two games.
DeVonta Smith receptions: Over 4.5 (+105). Kind of an enticing flier, right? Plus money. Smith caught just one pass last week but has caught at least five passes in half his games played this year.