Eagles vs. Falcons odds: NFL Playoff picks from expert who's 7-2 on Eagles games

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs kicks off with the Atlanta Falcons visiting the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday. The sixth-seeded Falcons are favored by a field goal. It's the first time a No. 1 seed has been an underdog in the divisional round and the first time a No. 1 seed has been an underdog to a No. 6 seed in the NFL playoffs.

The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 40.5, down sharply from an open of 44.5. According to forecasts, the temperature will drop throughout the day, with stiff winds making the air feel even colder. 

Before you lock in your picks for Falcons-Eagles, you need to see what veteran handicapper Josh Nagel has to say.

In another standalone game this season, Nagel told SportsLine readers to back the Seahawks as five-point underdogs against these same Eagles. The result: a 24-10 Seattle win -- an outright upset.

Strikingly, that cash improved Nagel to 7-2 in picks for or against the Eagles. He's also on a 13-4 run across all NFL picks. Anyone who has followed his advice is up big.

Part of his success: Nagel has been entrenched in the handicapping industry for two decades. He has also covered the NFL on numerous platforms, giving him a bird's eye view that's unmatched. He knows when a line is way off.

Now, he has examined every matchup, every injury and every angle for Falcons-Eagles and locked in his pick. You can see it over at SportsLine.

Nagel knows the Falcons pulled an upset road win against the Rams last week. Atlanta's stars showed up big: Matt Ryan threw for 218 yards and a score with a quarterback rating over 100, Devonta Freeman ran for 66 yards and a touchdown, and Julio Jones reeled in nine catches for 94 yards and found the end zone.

The Falcons' defense also continued to shine, sacking Jared Goff three times and forcing two turnovers. They haven't allowed more than 23 points since Week 11.

SportsLine's advanced computer model says Ryan will continue to roll against the Eagles. He'll throw for almost 300 yards, with Jones being the best receiving bet to find the end zone.

The Eagles are in the bottom half of the NFL against the pass (227.3 ypg) and have given up productive games already to Eli Manning (434 yards, three touchdowns), Russell Wilson (227-3), and Kirk Cousins (303-3), among others.

But just because the Falcons come in hot doesn't mean they'll cover a historic three-point spread on the road in the NFL divisional round.

Although they've shown a few leaks against the pass, the Eagles' defense has been a top-tier unit all season. Philadelphia is fourth in total defense (306.5 yards), No. 1 against the run (79.2 yards), and fourth in points allowed (18.4).

Although quarterback Nick Foles struggled against the Cowboys in Week 17, he has had two full weeks to practice with the first-team offense.

Foles already has a four-TD performance under his belt this season, dicing the Giants' defense in Week 15. Each of his touchdowns that game went to a different receiver.

At home, Philadelphia has been dominant. The Eagles held their past three opponents (Cowboys, Raiders, and Bears) to a combined 19 points. The Eagles were 7-1 at Lincoln Financial Field this season and the home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five games in this series.

It's no surprise that Nagel is leaning Under, but what about the side, which he has made his name picking?

He knows there's a big x-factor that ultimately determines which side of Falcons-Eagles you need to back, and SportsLine stat geek R.J. White, the site's No. 1 NFL expert, agrees with him.

So which side should you back in Falcons-Eagles in the divisional round? Visit SportsLine now to see what big x-factor determines which side of Falcons-Eagles you need to be all over, all from the handicapper who's 7-2 on Eagles picks, and find out.

Our Latest Stories