It's the beginning of a new era in Philadelphia as the Eagles will trot out rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts for his first NFL start. This comes in the aftermath of Carson Wentz being benched in the midst of Philly's Week 13 matchup with the Packers for Hurts, who provided enough of a spark to the offense that Doug Pederson made the change permanent. Now, Hurts will take on a tough New Orleans Saints defense and an offense still spearheaded by quarterback Taysom Hill.
In this space, we're going to dive into all the different betting angles that this game has on deck for us. On top of the spread and total, we'll also take a look at some of our favorite player props and see how the lines have shifted throughout the week. All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
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New Orleans (10-2) at Philadelphia (3-8-1)
This spread hasn't really moved much as the week progressed. It jumped up to New Orleans -7 after opening at -6.5 on Sunday, but it's fallen back down to that original number heading into the weekend. The Saints haven't really missed a beat with Drew Brees sidelined due to injury as they've won nine straight and covered five consecutive contests coming into this matchup, including the last three with Hill filling in as the starter.
Since the start of last season, New Orleans is 8-0 SU and ATS without Brees under center. While I foresee the potential for a Saints blowout against the Eagles, there is some hope for Philly as they roll out Jalen Hurts. Since the start of last season, quarterbacks making their first career start are 16-5 ATS (7-2 ATS this season). That's a strong history to lean on but New Orleans' defense is too good to be fooled for an entire four quarters and the Eagles don't have enough around Hurts currently to make this an easy transition.
Projected score: New Orleans 30, Philadelphia 17
The total has taken a plunge this week as bettors were quick to hit the Under early and often. After opening up at 45.5, this number has consistently ticked down throughout the week and sat at 42.5 by Friday.
Both of these teams are currently on an Under streak. The Under has hit in five straight games for the Saints and Philadelphia has gone Under in six straight. While that trend certainly instills a lot of confidence in those betting the Under, I'm leaning on the Over in this one. I'd assume Pederson and the rest of the Eagles staff will have a few things cooked up for Hurts that may catch the Saints off guard and allows them to get on the board. Meanwhile, the Eagles are giving up the eighth-most rushing yards per game entering Week 14, which plays right in the Saints' hands with Hill under center.
Projected total: 47
Taysom Hill total rushing yards: Over 46.5 (-155). Over his past four starts, Hill is averaging 55.3 rushing yards per game and is facing an Eagles defense that is pretty generous to the ground game.
Jalen Hurts total rushing yards: Over 38.5 (-120). Philly's offensive isn't particularly strong which means Hurts could be running for life against New Orleans. That's not even accounting for the designed runs that they'll surely call for him in this game. In Week 13, Hurts had 29 rushing yards with barely a half's worth of action.
Dallas Goedert total receptions: Over 3.5 (-110). A rookie quarterback typically looks to his tight end as a security blanket in the passing game and Goedert could be that for Hurts. It looks like he's surpassed Zach Ertz on the depth chart and was averaging over five catches per game with Wentz over the last four games.
Michael Thomas total receptions: Over 5.5 (-125). The Saints star wideout has started to come on over the last three weeks, averaging 7.3 receptions per game and is seeing nearly 10 targets per game over that stretch.