For the gambler in you, Week 12

Each week, we’ll take the best -- and cleverest -- odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what’s the point of watching sports at all?

Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread.

Game One: Giants -3.5 vs. Packers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

2012 Against The Spread
Overall: 4-5-1 Overall: 5-5
Home: 1-4 Home: 2-3
Away: 3-1-1 Away: 3-2
Last 5 vs. GB: 2-3 Last 5 vs. NYG: 3-2
2012 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 9th Pass defense: 21st
Rush offense: 13th Rush defense: 11th
Pass defense: 25th Pass offense: 11th
Rush defense: 15th Rush offense: 24th

Verdict: OK, these two teams -- whom we expected so much from this year -- have been slightly disappointing this season. However, I think there's money to be made from this line. With the way Eli Manning has performed in the past five games, it'll be hard for New York to win if he continues his slump. A bye week possibly will have helped set the Giants straight. But so far this season, Green Bay has just been a better team. Forget the spread. Green Bay wins this one straight-up.

Game Two: Buccaneers +1.5 vs. Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

2012 Against The Spread
Overall: 8-2 Overall: 6-4
Home: 3-2 Home: 2-3
Away: 5-0 Away: 4-1
Last 5 vs. ATL: 2-3 Last 5 vs. TB: 3-2
2012 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 14th Pass defense: 10th
Rush offense: 9th Rush defense: 26th
Pass defense: 32nd Pass offense: 3rd
Rush defense: 1st Rush offense: 28th

Verdict: By looking at the Buccaneers' team rankings, we can surmise that Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan will have a huge day and running back Michael Turner will do virtually nothing. The Buccaneers have been a surprise this season and are very much in the playoff race. Not much attention has been paid to Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman but he has been a major improvement. He and Doug Martin will help keep this game close, but I like the Falcons to cover on the strength of Ryan's arm.

Game Three (largest spread of week): Chiefs +10.5 vs. Broncos
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

2012 Against The Spread
Overall: 3-7 Overall: 6-4
Home: 1-4 Home: 3-2
Away: 2-3 Away: 3-2
Last 5 vs. DEN: 2-3 Last 5 vs. KC: 3-2
2012 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 28th Pass defense: 12th
Rush offense: 4th Rush defense: 5th
Pass defense: 9th Pass offense: 5th
Rush defense: 25th Rush offense: 19th

Verdict: Man, it seems that just about every week we're having to pick a Chiefs game in this slot. But this shouldn't be a tough decision. The Chiefs are terrible this season (and even worse against the spread at home), and I still believe Peyton Manning has turned the Broncos into a Super Bowl contender. Denver will make this an ugly win, winning by two touchdowns at least.


Ronnie Hillman, Broncos -- total rushing yards Week 12

Over/Under   55½

With Willis McGahee out for (potentially) the rest of the season with a knee injury, it’ll be interesting to see who emerges as the Broncos' new No. 1 running back. Hillman, the team’s 2012 third-round draft pick, is certainly a candidate. But with Lance Ball and Knowshon Moreno also hungering for playing time and with the thought that Hillman might not be an every-down back, I’ll go under here.

Charlie Batch, Steelers -- total passing yards Week 12

Over/Under   200.5

The Browns allow an average of 248.8 passing yards per game, the 22nd-best mark in the league. And the last time that Batch started a game (in 2011), he threw for 208 yards in an easy Steelers win. All of that adds up to me going over.

Last week: 2-1 against the spread (hit on the 49ers -5.5 vs. the Bears, the Jets +3.5 vs. the Rams; missed on the Texans -15.5 vs. the Jaguars) and 3-1 on prop bets. Hit on A.J. Green catching at least one touchdown pass, Nick Foles going under 250.5 passing yards, Byron Leftwich going under 240.5 passing yards; missed on Peyton Manning completing at least 70 percent of his passes.

Overall: 17-16 against the spread; 26-8-1 on prop bets; two props still undecided (Ken Whisenhunt first coach to get fired; Robert Griffin III won't lead the league in completion percentage at the end of the regular season).

For more NFL news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnNFL on Twitter, and subscribe to our Pick-6 Podcast and NFL newsletter. You can follow Josh Katzowitz on Twitter here: @joshkatzowitz.

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