For the gambler in you, Week 4: Eagles will stay close to Broncos

Each week, we’ll take the best -- and most clever -- odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what’s the point of watching sports at all?

Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread.

Game One: Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Cardinals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 1-2 Overall: 2-1
Home: 1-0 Home: 1-0
Away: 0-2 Away: 1-1
Last 3 vs. ARI: 2-1 Last 3 vs. TB: 1-2
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 31st Pass defense: 26th
Rush offense: 15th Rush defense: 3rd
Pass defense: 15th Pass offense: 19th
Rush defense: 16th Rush offense: 22nd

Verdict: The Buccaneers are in a state of flux. How do you pick them to cover? They've just benched their until-now franchise quarterback and might not keep him active for the game. How do you pick them to cover? They're going to start third-round draft pick Mike Glennon, who is most likely not ready to be an NFL starter? How do you pick them to cover? They're 0-3, and the season is already playing out as a disaster. How do you pick the Buccaneers to cover? Simple, you don't.

Game Two: Chiefs -4.5 vs. Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET FOX

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 2-1 Overall: 0-3
Home: 0-1 Home: 0-2
Away: 2-0 Away: 0-1
Last 3 vs. NYG: 0-3 Last 3 vs. KC: 3-0
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 26th Pass defense: 17th
Rush offense: 12th Rush defense: 27th
Pass defense: 5th Pass offense: 7th
Rush defense: 25th Rush offense: 32nd

Verdict: Like I wrote already this week, I like the Chiefs to beat up on the Giants, especially in Kansas City. Mostly because quarterback Alex Smith is a master game manager at this point (and the most accurate passer in the league when the ball flies 10 yards or less), because Kansas City's front-seven is terrifying, and because the Giants are a mess. But here's one other aspect: the Giants are 0-3 against the spread this year so far. I like them to be 0-4 after this week.

Game Three (largest spread of week): Broncos -11.5 vs. Eagles
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 2-1 Overall: 1-2
Home: 1-1 Home: 0-2
Away: 1-0 Away: 1-0
Last 2 vs. PHI: 2-0 Last 2 vs. DEN: 0-2
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 1st Pass defense: 29th
Rush offense: 15th Rush defense: 22nd
Pass defense: 30th Pass offense: 14th
Rush defense: 1st Rush offense: 1st

Verdict: Yes, I'm the only one of the experts to go with the Eagles, and since I made that pick on Monday, I'm having a tough time remembering why I think Philadelphia will cover. After an impressive first half in Week 1 vs. the Redskins, that supposedly-revoluationary offense brought by Chip Kelly has been rather ordinary. But I like the Eagles to keep it close vs. the Broncos, no matter how well Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense has been playing, because Philadelphia will continue use LeSean McCoy effectively and will keep that Eagles on the field. Manning will get his yards and score his points, but the Eagles will keep up just enough to cover.


Will the Chiefs have a turnover Week 4 vs. the Giants? (Note: The Chiefs have not committed a turnover so far this season.)

Yes   -200 (1/2)

No  +150 (3/2)

No turnovers through the first three games is a strong stat (though to be fair, the Titans also have zero turnovers and the Colts have given it up just once). If Kansas City doesn’t turn it over vs. New York, the Chiefs would tie the 1995 Rams for the longest streak in NFL history without a turnover to begin the season. New York, meanwhile, has only recorded four turnovers, tied for last in the NFC. But I guess I don’t completely trust Alex Smith. I’d go yes here.

Will the Steelers force a turnover Week 4 vs. the Vikings? (Note: The Steelers have not forced a turnover so far this season.)   

Yes   -200 (1/2)

No   +150 (3/2)

The Steelers are playing Matt Cassel and the 0-3 Vikings this week, right? Right. OK, go with yes.

Mike Glennon -- Total passing yards Week 4 vs. the Cardinals    

Over/Under   220½

Man, I really don’t like the move the Buccaneers made here, replacing Josh Freeman with the third-round draft pick. Not necessarily from a chemistry or locker room perspective. In that case, it’s not a bad idea to bench the starting quarterback, especially if the team no longer believes in him. But the chances of Glennon being ready to start at this level aren’t great. And I see him going under here.

Last week: 3-0 against the spread; 1-2 on prop bets. Overall this year: 5-4 against the spread, 3-4 on prop bets. Last two years: 31-39 against the spread; 37-21-1 on prop bets.

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