For the gambler in you, Week 7: Broncos, Packers will cover

This man is the main reason Denver will cover vs. Indianapolis. (USATSI)
This man is the main reason Denver will cover vs. Indianapolis. (USATSI)

Each week, we'll take the best -- and most clever -- odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what’s the point of watching sports at all?

Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread.

Game One: Colts +6.5 vs. Broncos
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 3-3 Overall: 3-3
Home: 1-2 Home: 2-2
Away: 2-1 Away: 1-1
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 23rd Pass defense: 32nd
Rush offense: 8th Rush defense: 1st
Pass defense: 5th Pass offense: 1st
Rush defense: 29th Rush offense: 5th

Verdict: This is probably a little simplistic -- or a lot simplistic -- but the main reason I like the Broncos is because of this fun storyline involving Indianapolis owner Jim Irsay and Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning. Manning hasn't commented on the matter, but reportedly, he's had a little bit of an edge this week. The Colts, at this moment, are the best in the AFC South, but on Sunday, Denver will prove that Indianapolis isn't on the same level as the Broncos. I like the Broncos by two touchdowns, mostly because Manning will want to make sure this loss is painful for his old owner.

Game Two: Steelers -2.5 vs. Ravens
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET CBS

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 1-4 Overall: 4-2
Home: 0-2 Home: 3-0
Away: 1-2 Away: 1-2
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 7th Pass defense: 12th
Rush offense: 30th Rush defense: 26th
Pass defense: 4th Pass offense: 9th
Rush defense: 20th Rush offense: 31st

Verdict: Because both teams' seasons have been so disappointing, this game isn't the marquee matchup it normally is. But I like Pittsburgh in this one, as I wrote about earlier this week. The Steelers offensive line is not good, but if Pittsburgh can get the ball out of the pocker as quick as it did last week, that weakness will be neutralized -- somewhat at least. Baltimore and Joe Flacco have not been impressive coming off their Super Bowl-winning season, and they'll be even more disappointed after this one is over.

Game Three (largest spread of week): Packers -10.5 vs. Browns
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

2013 Against The Spread
Overall: 2-3 Overall: 3-3
Home: 2-0 Home: 2-2
Away: 0-3 Away: 1-1
2013 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 4th Pass defense: 8th
Rush offense: 5th Rush defense: 8th
Pass defense: 28th Pass offense: 17th
Rush defense: 3rd Rush offense: 21st

Verdict: Man, I'd feel so much better about taking the Browns in this game if either Brian Hoyer or Thad Lewis were starting at quarterback. But with Brandon Weeden back as the starter, I don't see Cleveland staying close to the Packers. Listen, Green Bay isn't the best team in the NFC, but the Packers, even with some of their best receivers out because of injuries, will play like they are against the Browns this weekend and cover the spread. 


Total sacks for Von Miller in Week 7?      

Over/Under 1

Oh yes, it's not just about Manning returning to Indianapolis. Miller, who was suspended for six games, finally gets to make his 2013 debut. He'll be hungry to feast on the Indianapolis offensive line, which has allowed 13 sacks this season (tied for eight-best in the league), and I think he'll get more than one.

Josh Freeman -- Total passing yards Week 7           

Over/Under 235½

Since he's joined the Vikings, Freeman has seemed happy, and the team seems confident in him. Which is why he's starting vs. the Giants, who happen to rank 23rd in the league by allowing 268 passing yards per game. Freeman started three games this year for the Buccaneers, and his season-high is 236 yards. But against the Giants, I like Freeman to have a big effort in his first game with his new team. Go over.

Last week: 1-2 against the spread; 3-0 on prop bets. Overall this year: 10-8 against the spread, 8-7 on prop bets. Last two years: 36-43 against the spread; 42-24-1 on prop bets.

See my picks and all the experts here.

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