Week 3 in the NFL kicks off from Levi's Stadium where the the San Francisco 49ers will host the New York Giants on Thursday night. Brian Daboll's team stayed on the West Coast this week after taking on the Arizona Cardinals, a game where they needed to rally from a 20-0 halftime deficit to earn their first win of the year. Meanwhile, the Niners are one of the handful of teams that have started out the season 2-0, but of those victories have come on the road as they head into the home opener.
Here, we're going to take a look at this game from a gambling perspective. We'll look at the line movement leading up to Thursday, the total, and dive into a handful of player props. Before we do, let's make sure you know how to watch this prime-time head-to-head.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
- Giants: RB Saquon Barkley (ankle), OL Andrew Thomas (hamstring), OL Ben Bredeson (concussion), LB Azeez Ojulari (hamstring) OUT; WR Wan'Dale Robinson (knee), LB Micah McFadden (neck) QUESTIONABLE
- 49ers: WR Brandon Aiyuk (shoulder), CB Ambry Thomas (knee) QUESTIONABLE
This initially opened at 49ers -9.5 but ticked up the half point to get to 10 coming out of Week 2 and has flirted with 10.5 at certain books.
The pick: 49ers -10. This feels like it could be a 49ers bludgeoning on Thursday night. San Francisco's pass rush continues to be among the best in the NFL, owning the sixth-highest pressure rater thus far. That now goes up against a Giants offensive line without Andrew Thomas and is allowing the second-highest pressure rate in the league through two weeks. That's going to make life extremely difficult for Daniel Jones, who is in primetime and 16-17 SU in his career without Saquon Barkley.
Also, every imaginable trend goes against New York here. Double-digit favorites are 40-4 SU and 28-16 ATS on Thursday dating back to 1970. Meanwhile, the 49ers are impeccable at home, owning a 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS record in their last 13 games at Levi's Stadium, which is the best in the NFL over that stretch. Brock Purdy is also 5-1-1 ATS in his regular-season career as a starter.
This total has bounced around a bit. After opening at 43.5, it dipped a point to 42.5 before volleying between 44.5 and 45.
The pick: Under 44.5. I have a hard time seeing the Giants being able to muster anything significant on offense against this 49ers defense. Not only is this San Francisco unit arguably the best defense in the NFL, but the Giants offense has been largely putrid to begin the season and will now have a banged-up offensive line and no Saquon Barkley on a short week. The Niners have shown us they can get to 30 points, but can we seriously expect New York to get over two touchdowns?
Daniel Jones props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +165, Under -234)
Passing yards: 213.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 31.5 (Over -131, Under -104)
Passing completions: 19.5 (Over -135, Under -101)
Longest passing completion: 34.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Rushing yards: 37.5 (Over -129, Under -106)
New York's offense will naturally be forced to throw more with Barkley sidelined, so we'll go with Jones to throw over the pedestrian number of 213.5 yards on Thursday night. It won't be pretty for the Giants quarterback, but without a stable running game and a game script that suggests they'll be playing from behind, the ball will be put in Jones' hands to try and keep New York within striking distance. It's encouraging that Jones started to get in sync with rookie wideout Jalin Hyatt last week, connecting on a 58-yard pass. If we can sprinkle in one of those chunk plays, we'll be well within range to cash.
Brock Purdy props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -142, Under +104)
Passing yards: 228.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Passing attempts: 28.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Passing completions: 19.5 (Over -137, Under +100)
Longest passing completion: 35.5 (Over -108, Under -127)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +190, Under -274)
Rushing yards: 7.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Purdy was unable to throw for a touchdown last week, but that has largely been the outlier since he became the 49ers quarterback. In fact, Since coming in under duress in Week 13 last season, Purdy has thrown for multiple touchdowns in eight of his 11 games played. I think the Niners QB gets back on track in that regard on Thursday night.
Props to consider
Christian McCaffrey total rushing yards: Over 77.5 (-135). This is a square play, but sometimes square plays are correct. The Giants are allowing opponents to average 136.5 rushing yards per game (26th in the NFL) on a 4.6 yards per carry average (25th) through two weeks. That includes James Conner dropping 106 (4.6 YPC) last week. And now they get McCaffrey, who has been white hot to begin the year with back-to-back games with at least 116 yards on the ground. If you want a little more of a longshot play here, you can snag McCaffrey's alternate rushing yards prop of 100+ at +225 at Caesars.
Deebo Samuel total receptions: Over 4.5 (-123). With Aiyuk's status still in question, let's look to Samuel to see an uptick in targets. Even if Aiyuk plays, he's likely not 100% and Samuel has already gone over this total in each of his first two games and has 16 targets over that stretch (8 targets per game).
Which other Giants vs. 49ers prop bets should you target for Thursday Night Football? Visit SportsLine to see the top props, all from the brand-new SportsLine AI that went 19-9 on all 5-star rated NFL prop picks in Week 2.